The victory of extreme groups in regional elections could change the politics of the whole of Germany

Björn Hoecke is the villain of German politics. In the past, he spoke flatteringly of Hitler, and recently a court sentenced him to a fine for using Nazi slogans.

Hoecke's supporters are not bothered by this, however. He is the leader of the Alternative for Germany in the state of Thuringia. He even has a real chance of becoming its prime minister.

– Long live our homeland Thuringia, long live our beloved Germany, long live true Europe! – said Björn Hoecke, leader of the Alternative for Germany in Thuringia, at the rally.

On August 31, voting will take place in two states in eastern Germany – Saxony and Thuringia. While 30 percent of support in Saxony could give Alternative for Germany second place in the vote, 29 percent in Thuringia could mean a clear victory. Perhaps even a takeover.

The AfD is also leading in polls in the Berlin-area state of Brandenburg, which will vote on September 22. Demonstrations against the Alternative for Germany are sweeping across Germany. The party's opponents are saying outright that they are fascists.

“I'm clear: I am against the normalization of fascism. They are making fascism normal. The AfD's leading candidate is shouting Nazi slogans, AfD members are rejecting the rules that apply in Germany,” says Bodo Ramelow, the premier of Thuringia and a politician of the party “Die Linke”.

Immigration is a key campaign issue in eastern Germany, and the tone has hardened since the recent knife attack in Solingen.

What is new is that the Alternative for Germany is trying to win over immigrants who have the right to vote. The narrative aimed at them is: when you came to Germany, you had to earn everything through hard work, new arrivals get everything for free.

The far right is increasingly openly proclaiming pro-Russian slogans. Its local politicians are more willing to talk about Putin's war than about local government issues.

– We called for an end to sanctions against Russia, which harm our country more than Russia. The CDU voted against it. We called for a tax cut. The CDU voted against it – said Jorg Urban, the Alternative for Germany candidate in Saxony, at the rally.

– We will not let anyone tell us how to live – neither Berlin nor Brussels. How to tell us what car to drive, what to eat – no one. Neither from the left nor from the right. We are Saxons. We go our own way. We do our own thing, ladies and gentlemen – said Michael Kretschmer, deputy chairman of the Christian Democratic Union and prime minister of Saxony at the rally.

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The results of the vote in the east could shake up the coalition that governs all of Germany. All three government parties – the SPD, the Greens and the FDP – may not even cross the five percent threshold in Saxony and Thuringia.

Among others, the “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” is taking their votes away. This is a party described in Germany as a populist, pro-Russian left. Its leader is a 54-year-old, born in the GDR, daughter of a German mother and an Iranian father.

– I don't like it when a party of right-wing extremists and Nazis is gaining strength. We need to say it clearly: who is responsible for the fact that so many people in our country vote for such a party out of anger and despair? These are politicians who have been ruling over people's heads for years. Who have been ignoring what people want for years, who have been ignoring them on a thousand issues – said Sahra Wagenknecht, chairwoman of the “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” party at the rally.

After the elections in the east, it is Sahra Wagenknecht who may be calling the shots. Her votes will most likely be crucial in forming a coalition. Wagenknecht has stated that she will agree to isolate the Alternative for Germany only if the government in Berlin takes its demands into account in foreign policy. Among other things, they envisage stopping the delivery of weapons to Ukraine.

This shows how the victory of extreme parties in the regional elections could change the politics of Germany as a whole.

– We would either be dealing with a Germany that is more pro-Russian, or at least such attitudes must be taken into account in politics, increasingly anti-American. This would be a Germany that would fall into greater isolationism, protectionism, which would have a huge impact on how the European Union would develop, or rather collapse – explains Anna Kwiatkowska, head of the German section of the Centre for Eastern Studies.

A shrinking, weak European Union has been a long-term strategic goal of the Kremlin for years.