Ukrainian forces offensive in the Belgorodz region. Expert analysis

According to the project Deepstate, monitoring the situation on the Ukrainian front, the area uncontrolled by any of the “gray zone” in the northwestern part of the Belgorodz region is currently at least 13 kilometers. It includes the villages of Popowka and Diemieddka located at the border of the Kurski District.

On March 18, the defense department in Moscow for the first time informed about the attempt to “break the Ukrainian troops” towards two Russian villages on the border of the Belgorodz and Kurski districts. According to the ministry, these towns were “attacked” by 200 Ukrainian soldiers, equipped with over 20 equipment units. The authorities in Moscow assured that the offensive was represented. Local authorities, however, reported something else that “the situation is difficult” and that Ukrainians still remain in the Belgorodz region.

The governor of the Wiaczesław Gładkow region announced the evacuation of the inhabitants of several villages, located just off the border with Ukraine.

Official comments from Kiev regarding the fighting in the Penitant District – emphasizes the Ukrainian BBC section – so far it has not been.

The available geolocalization photos show that Ukrainian forces try to cross the Russian border almost every day in several places at the same time. In some regions, these samples were successful, and the Ukrainians managed to break the first line of Russian defense in the Belgorodz region and start combat operations in populated areas – informs the BBC.

The Russian channels on the telegram said on Tuesday that “the operational and combat situation in the border region remains constantly tense, the enemy does not give up attempts to conquer the abutment in Russia's territory, using small infantry groups for attacks.”

The obvious reason for Ukraine's offensive actions in the Belgorodz region is the desire to reduce pressure from the Russian group of troops to the abutment of Ukrainian forces in the neighboring Kurski region – BBC assessed. Both of these regions are under the control of the Russian group of “North” troops. At the beginning of March, her soldiers managed to break through the Ukrainian defense in the Kursk region and liberate almost the entire territory controlled by Ukrainians from August 2024 – BBC reminded.

Only two small areas in the Kurski region remained under the control of Ukraine – near the Sudża control point and in the area of ​​the villages of Gornal and Gujiewo, which are located in a forested area on the banks of the Psel River. The areas of the Belgorodz region, currently attacked by the Ukrainian forces, are located a few kilometers south. In the event of a successful and deep break, the Ukrainian army could reach the rear of the Russians and cut off their logistics in the area of ​​the border.

Command of the Russian army – forecasts the BBC, citing the opinion of Ukrainian military analysts – will be forced to withdraw some of their troops from the Kursk region in order to “extinguish fires” in the neighboring Belgorodz region. This will stretch their strength and reduce the pressure to Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region.

Military analyst of the “Information Opposition” group Maszowec pointed out that the command of Russian troops had already begun transferring additional forces to the Belgorodz region, in particular from 6., 20 and the 3rd army. Earlier, these formations operated in the directions of Kupiański (in the Kharkiv region), Łymanian, Siewierz and Krama (Donetsk region) in Ukraine.

Former Ukrainian security officer Ivan Stupak told the Ukrainian agency Unian that “Ukrainian offensive minioperation is underway, and its explanation is to distract the Russian general staff from Kurski.” Stupak also said that the Russian troops entered the territory of the summary region in Ukraine, taking six kilometers of terrain. The attack on the Belgorodz region is to prevent them from further progress.