The presidential election in the United States is on November 5. The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Kamala Harris's lead over Donald Trump has decreased to one percentage point. Meanwhile, a CNN poll shows Harris winning early voting in Arizona and Trump winning in Nevada.
From published on Tuesday survey Reuters/Ipsos election results show that Democrat Kamala Harris has an advantage over the Republican candidate Donald Trump in the American presidential race it decreased to one percentage point and amounts to 44%. up to 43 percent
The Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,150 U.S. adults across the country, including 975 registered voters. The research lasted three days and ended on Sunday.
An earlier Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in mid-October showed the vice president had a two-point lead over Trump. As noted, Harris' lead has been steadily narrowing since late September. The statistical error limit is three percentage points.
The latest survey showed that respondents believe Trump has a better approach to the economy, unemployment and employment than Harris (47% to 37%). The Republican candidate had the upper hand on economic issues throughout the campaign.
Moreover, approximately 48 percent voters said that the former president's views on immigration, including regarding the mass deportation of migrants illegally in the US are more accurate. Only 33 percent voters agree with Harris' views on this issue.
According to Reuters, Harris's minimal advantage over the former president may not be enough to win the election, even if it holds until November 5. Voting results in seven key swing states will be decisive: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that approximately 89 percent Democrats and 93 percent Republicans declared their participation in the elections. This indicates a potentially larger turnout than four years ago. Two-thirds of U.S. adults voted in the 2020 election, the highest turnout in more than a century, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau and Pew Research Center.
Among respondents most likely to vote, Harris also had a one-point lead over Trump (47% to 46%).
Beyoncé performed at a Kamala Harris rally. “I'm here as a mother”Arleta Zalewska/Fakty TVN
CNN: Harris wins Arizona, Trump wins Nevada
Less than a week before the US elections, CNN also published a poll. According to the study Kamala Harris wins early voting in Arizona and Trump wins in Nevada. The final election result in Western states is also expected to be the same.
In Arizona, 53 percent voted for Harris, according to a poll covering two desert states. voters who have already voted, and for Trump – 44%. In Nevada, however, the situation is the opposite, 52-46 percent. for Trump. The poll shows that more than half of voters (55%) in Arizona have already voted, and in Nevada – 42%.
CNN analyzes that the final results in these states will be close to a tie: in Arizona, Harris will win by a margin of 48-47, while in Nevada, Trump will win by the same margin. However, both results are within the limits of statistical error. At the same time, the CNN study indicates that the Democratic candidates won the Senate elections by a decisive margin of 9 points. percent
A similar picture was shown by a University of Arizona study published on Monday, according to which Harris has a one-point advantage there. This is despite the fact that of the 1.6 million voters who cast ballots there, 678,000 were registered as Republican, 550,000 were Democratic, and 389,000 were voters with no party affiliation.
Declared party affiliation, however, does not mean voting for that party. Harris' victory in Arizona and her 11 electoral votes would bring her much closer to winning the election, because it is one of the key states where Trump had a greater chance. Nevada, with six electoral votes, voted for Biden in 2020; the favorite there is the Republican candidate with a slight advantage.
In 2020 Joe Biden won in Arizona by less than 0.2 points. percent, i.e. 10 thousand votes and was the first Democrat since Bill Clinton to win the presidential election there.
When analyzing polls, we should also remember the specificity of the American electoral system, according to which obtaining the largest number of votes nationwide is not tantamount to winning the election. US presidential elections are indirect, with voters in each state formally voting for electors of the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, or another candidate. There are 538 of them in total – elected from each of the 50 states and the Capital District Colombia. California represents the most (54), followed by Texas (40 electors), Florida (30) and New York (28). To win the election, you need to win the support of 270 of them.
This system means that the results of presidential elections are most often determined by votes in the so-called swing states, where sometimes the Republican candidate wins the election, and sometimes the Democratic candidate. This year, the following are considered key to winning: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Main photo source: PAP/EPA/LON HORWEDEL