Weather for Easter. The ongoing cooling in Poland and the return of winter weather tell us to ask a question about what awaits us in the weather during the upcoming Easter. Our synoptic Arleta Unton-Pyziołek checks what you can see in American and European meteorological models.
Someone just stole the spring. Even on Friday, the temperature rose in the center, in the west and south of Poland to 20-21 degrees Celsius, and on Saturday, April 5 she burst with a bang. The maximum temperatures of 9-11 degrees C appeared in places only in the west and south of the country, but in the northeast of the country they reached only 3-5 degrees.
The rafting of arctic air in April is unfortunately a natural phenomenon, although very unpleasant. He is accompanied by burdensome snowstorms and a strong wind. The thermal shock we are experiencing now prompts you to ask the question about whether in Easter someone will steal good weather?
Weather for Easter. What you can see in the forecasts
In the light of the latest calculations of the American GFS model, the heat is to return gradually after April 14. Lowland systems from Eastern Europe will release the place to the highway, which will change air circulation in Europe. Milder air will start flowing to us. Lowlands, ripening over the waters of the North Atlantic and Arctic, will not yet let go and may come to us around Christmas with a wave of cold.
Today, it seems that after April 15 it will get warmer, and just before the holidays, a heat wedge will develop, reaching from the coast of North Africa to Scandinavia. Although there is no strong shock hot from the south into our region of Europe, but the chances of a temperature of 16-20 degrees Celsius on Good Friday are currently over 50 percent. Only this probability value can now be proposed, because the dynamics of air circulation in April is uncontrollable.
Weather for Easter. Heat belt from Africa to Scandinavia, a forecast for temperature deviation on the ground on April 18Gfs/tropicaltidbits.com
Calculation of models for Easter
The heat for Friday and Saturday, April 18-19 is in question. Later, on Easter Sunday, the GFS model calculates the development of a cold tongue reaching from Greenland to the Balkans. Thus, the cold rafting on the holidays is already possible, but it should not be as severe as the current thermal shock. The wave of cold is to roll from the northwest, carrying a decrease in temperature. Thus, today it can be initially forecast that on Sunday, April 20, the temperature will rise in Poland to 7-9 degrees Celsius in the West, through 10 degrees Celsius in the center, to 11 degrees C in the east.
Weather for Easter. A cold wave on April 20, a temperature deviation forecast for a minus at the ground on April 20Gfs/tropicaltidbits.com
Forecast for Easter. Nothing is a foregone conclusion
The lowland vortex, which would dive from the North Atlantic into Europe, is a capricious creation. How does the coming time see another prognostic center?
The European ECMWF model, based on the work of “thinking machines”, estimates that at Easter a wave of heat is possible to spill from South-Eastern Europe west. These calculations are very controversial, but they signal that nothing is decided. The more that the same research center also publishes weekly forecasts based on a proven numerical model and its calculations are similar to American. A wave of mild heat is estimated between April 15 and 20, followed by an inheritance trend of average temperature.
The weather at Easter stands as every year under a big question mark. Heat can stay until April 20, but it can escape as quickly on April 19. Mother Nature will play the counting “Entliczek Pentliczek, a red table, on whom she will fall out, on this – bęc!”.
Weather for Easter. Heat wave between April 14 and 20, temperature deviation forecast from the norm to plus ECMWFECMWF
Weather for Easter. What you can see in the forecastsTvn24
Source of the main photo: Shutterstock