Weather for January 2025. The “Beast from the East” is sleeping, and what about the polar vortex? The latest forecasts for January

Once upon a time, when there were real winters in Poland, the arctic frost painted twigs and flowers on the windows. Old windows in houses heated by stoves were covered with tiny needle-shaped ice crystals, i.e. frost. Leaky windows allowed warm and humid air to escape. During contact with frozen glass outside, and sometimes even at home, the process of resublimation of water vapor took place, i.e. its direct transformation into ice. In the cold, water vapor precipitated and froze immediately. Ice crystals grew, painting fern plumes on the windows… Meanwhile, today, my teenage child, analyzing the poem “Fragment” by Maria Pawilkowska-Jasnorzewska, asked, “what are window flowers?” The imagination of young people, separated from the increasingly warmer world by triple-glazed windows, no longer appeals to the phrase: “remember how in winter the flowers of the windows glide on skis on silver windows?”

There is less and less winter in winter, and when it comes for a few days it causes a sensation. Unfortunately, the latest forecasts give little chance for frost, specifically the calculations of the seasonal model of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for January, February and March. The average temperature forecast for the coming three months is expected to deviate from normal by 2-3 degrees Celsius in Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, flows of cold air masses from the north-east and east, bringing strong temperature drops over the Arctic and Siberia, will remain a rare sight, like a white deer. Of course, nothing can be ruled out, because seasonal forecasts for the winter months generally overestimate the temperature values, but they are quite good at setting trends that stick to the heat.

The situation could be saved by breaking the polar vortex into several smaller ones and bringing the cold from the Arctic to our latitudes. However, such events also bring with them weather extremes. For many weeks, the cold cap over the North Pole, in which the temperature drops to as much as -80 degrees at an altitude of 30 kilometers, has been under close observation. Researchers and enthusiasts of this phenomenon hope that heat from the tropics will be released into the upper layers of the atmosphere, which would penetrate above the pole and break the Arctic dome. So far, nothing like this has been visible, which is confirmed by the Japanese Meteorological Agency, which detects the so-called sudden stratospheric warming. It would bring confusion to Europe, paralyze highways and close many schools. The American GFS model also predicts that the polar vortex will remain in its vortex for now. Both today and in two weeks, its center is to stick firmly to the pole. Maybe he'll grow his nose in February?

The Atlantic Ocean is expected to have the upper hand in shaping the weather in the coming weeks. The temperature assumed by the American national forecasting center to be higher than usual, with precipitation rather normal, means for Poland an alternating flow of air masses from the Arctic Ocean and the Mid-Atlantic. This heralds a generally mild winter with frosty episodes. Low-pressure whirlpools forming over ocean waters will pump alternating rain and snow, interspersed with short clear spells. For the sun to shine for many days, a strong influx of harsh and dry air from the northeast and east is needed. And there's no word on the “beast from the east”, because it's supposed to be warmer than usual in Russia.

A reliable sensor of the direction of circulation, which will set the tone for the weather in January, is the so-called indicator developed by the Americans. NAO North Atlantic Oscillation. It literally estimates the strength of air circulation in our region of the globe, based on forecasts of the interaction of the Azores High and the Icelandic Low. Thus, it determines whether heat and moisture during the zonal (western) inflow of air masses from the Atlantic will be transferred deep into Europe, or whether they will be blocked and cold will flow from the north or east.

The NAO forecast shows a disruption of the zonal circulation in the near future by lows diving deep into Central Europe and a swelling gulf of cold spreading from the Arctic to the Balkans. The northern circulation of air between January 10 and 13 will bring cold to central Europe with snowfall of up to 10 centimeters in the lowlands. After the overnight clearing, the temperature on Monday, January 13, in the morning may drop to -10 degrees in some places. Temperature deviation from normal will be around 10 degrees Celsius in northern France, Germany and Poland for a while. However, this will only be a winter episode.

In the second half of January, the northern circulation is expected to turn into a mild western one, which is visible in the course of the NAO index. The so-called a positive phase of the oscillation, meaning strong cooperation between the low pressure over the northern waters of the Atlantic and the high pressure developing in the Azores deep into Europe. In the light of today's materials, there is going to be a change, maybe not a drastic one, but it suggests that there is no chance for a harsh winter. The graph showing the possible course of the indicator in the second half of January is characterized by an increase with the possibility of positive and negative fluctuations. Therefore, it can be estimated that the temperature in the afternoons after January 15 will increase to 1-5 degrees Celsius, and at night it will drop to a maximum of -5 degrees Celsius.

Such temperature values ​​from the vague border between autumn and winter are to be caused by a very specific barometric situation. A western circulation is expected to occur, which will be carried by the Icelandic Low, and will be supported by the high pressure developing in the middle of the month. It will reach Russia from the mid-Atlantic and bring heat from the south over western Europe. When this powerful system locates its center in Poland around mid-January, the air settling in it will cover our sky with low stratus clouds. It will keep the ground moderately cold, locally carrying drizzle or granular snow, i.e. snow. It will create any kind of weather for a week, at least until January 20. If it settled over Scandinavia or northwestern Russia, it would tailor our winter to our needs. Meanwhile, there will be little rainfall and clear weather during this high pressure period.

What will come in the last decade of January? A calm high pressure with tedious weather is expected to give way to North Atlantic cyclones. Low-pressure whirlpools will set the air masses in specific motion, pushing mild warmth and rain fronts from the ocean into our region of the continent, and also adding strong winds and storms in the Baltic Sea. The average temperature at this time is expected to rise above the long-term norm by about 3 degrees Celsius, and Masuria and Podlasie by up to 4 degrees C. At least these are the forecasts calculated by the European Center for Medium-Term Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Scandinavia is expected to record an even higher positive deviation, which means that we cannot count on cold flow from the Arctic at the end of January. The temperature will again reach 10 degrees Celsius in the foothills, and the wind speed over the sea will reach 100 kilometers per hour.

For years, the Atlantic Ocean has been increasing its influence on the winter weather in Poland. It has accumulated heat above the norm and is expected to supply it to the atmosphere in the coming weeks. As long as the weather is shaped by lows or highs, as long as they are located in the west or in the center of Europe, the ocean will not allow winter for revelry and frolic. With the temperature ultimately expected to be higher than in the last few decades, we should expect short waves of cold, which will, however, be balanced by the inflow of warm air masses from the west. The European forecast center ECMWF estimates that the entire January will be a total of 2-3 degrees warmer than norms. And rainfall in the north and south will eventually be slightly above normal. Even if the high pressure visible on the forecast horizon stops the progress of rain and snow fronts, the rainfall in the first decade of the month and forecast for the third decade will bring January closer to the standards in terms of humidity. The mountains will still be covered with white snow, but the lowlands will remain grey, with short breaks.