The likelihood of a La Nina weather anomaly has decreased in the coming months, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said on Tuesday. It added that if the phenomenon occurs, it will be weak and short-lived.
The La Nina phenomenon is characterized by above-average ocean surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. During this anomaly, the activity of trade winds increases, bringing cold deep water to the ocean surface. The development of La Nina and its opposite (El Nino) are of great importance to, among other things, global agriculture, with the former typically increasing rainfall in eastern Australia, Southeast Asia and India, and decreasing rainfall in the Americas.
– The chance of the La Nina phenomenon developing in the coming months has decreased, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said in a fortnightly update on Tuesday. According to the models, the deviation of the average ocean surface temperature will most likely remain within the neutral thresholds of -0.8 degrees C to +0.8 degrees C throughout the forecast period, i.e. until February 2025.
Of the six other climate models examined, four also suggest that ocean surface temperatures will remain within neutral thresholds.
If the anomaly develops, it will be weak
“If La Nina were to develop, it is projected to be relatively weak (in terms of the strength of sea surface temperature anomalies) and short-lived,” BOM said.
According to forecasts by American experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the chance of La Nina occurring by the end of November is 60 percent. A month earlier it was found that there were 71 percent. chances of this anomaly forming.
La Niña weather anomalyAdam Ziemienowicz/PAP/REUTERS
Reuters, NOAA, Bureau of Meteorology
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