Our June receipt report looks very similar to the May one. That is, most products are getting more expensive. And there are many indications that this will not be the end. The largest increase compared to June 2023 can be seen in the case of butter (22.8%) and orange juice (19%). We explained the fate of the latter in the previous analysis: We checked the receipts. Food prices can change a lot.
Price basket – receipt report. Most products are getting more expensive
Double-digit price increases on store shelves can also be seen in the case of apples (16.7% year-on-year), wafers (16%) and breakfast cereals (10.3%). It is worth noting that there are also products that have double-digit price reductions. These are sugar (30.4% cheaper than a year earlier), eggs (11.5%) and oil (11.4%). There are also a few products that barely budged in one direction or the other – water cost 1.4% more than a year earlier, rice 0.2% more and yogurt 1% less.
Price basket – receipt report for June 2024. Graphics: Gazeta.pl
Here we remind you that our analysis of price changes is something different than Central Statistical Office data on inflation. This amounted to 2.6 percent in June (on food and non-alcoholic beverages 2.5 percent, on alcoholic beverages and tobacco products 3.9 percent). The Central Statistical Office tracks 230 thousand prices, while we base our analysis on over 30 basic products and their prices on receipts from thousands of local stores located close to home. These are small-format outlets for 300 sq. m. of surface. CMR – a research company – provides us with this data, and here it takes into account the product that is the leader in a given category (e.g. orange juice) and averages its price from the entire country. However, there are categories in which there are no such nationwide leaders – i.e. bread, for example, is delivered locally. Here we compare the average price for products with the same parameters. In our comparison, we also take into account promotions.
“It will be more expensive”
In total, 23 of the food products we checked went up in price, while 10 went down. There is no point in counting on these proportions changing.
It will be more expensive. There are and will be many factors influencing price increases. The first is the withdrawal of the VAT shield. Here, the impact was delayed due to the fierce price competition of stores. It is only now starting to be visible on store shelves. The second thing is another increase in the minimum wage, which naturally means an increase in costs and pressure for increases not only for people earning the minimum wage.
– lists Andrew Gantner, vice-president of the Polish Federation of Food Producers.
The third issue is the increase in energy prices.
– Plants Processing industries are not protected here, while energy in the production, processing and distribution of food, including the costs of raw materials and consumables, is a very important cost factor – adds Andrzej Gantner.
It also reminds us of other factors from around the world that also drive up prices – in this case, raw materials.
This is the result of negative climate change, for example in terms of coffee, but also cocoa beans. But this is not the only impulse. The Chinese are learning to drink coffee, their consumption is growing by about 8 percent per year, so limiting supply while demand is growing significantly increases prices. Additionally, from January 2025, deforestation regulations are coming into force in the EU and producers will be required to identify where cocoa beans come from, i.e. whether they are not from deforested areas. Since it is currently possible to document in this way even half of the raw material supplied to the EU, there may be restrictions in supply or importers will have to pay high fines, and speculation in the raw material has already begun.
– says Andrzej Gantner.