On the one hand, it doesn't look bad. Although fewer apartments were put into use in the first eight months of this year than last year, the number of premises for which construction permits have been issued and those whose construction has already started has increased.
As he says Central Statistical Office, handed over apartments during the period January-August there were 128.8 thousand – that an increase of 10.9 percent year to year. Released building permits 196.4 thousand apartments – up to 30.0 percent more than a year ago, a construction has started 162.2 thousand apartments – by 35.4 percent more.
Where are the most apartments built in Poland?
So where is it being built? most? When broken down into voivodeships, it is definitely in the lead Masovian Voivodeship with 31,744 apartments, construction of which started in the first eight months of this year. It came in second place Lower Silesia with 16,124 apartments, further Greater Poland Voivodeship from 15,536, Lesser Poland Voivodeship of 14,961 and Silesia of 14,107.
Least is being built in the Opole and Lubusz provinces – just over 2.5 thousand each. apartments. As for the apartments to be built permits have been issued or an application was submitted with a construction project, the headlamp looks similar. The first one is Masovian Voivodeship – 40 327, next Lesser Poland Voivodeship and 19,684 i Lower Silesia – 19,369, next Greater Poland Voivodeship of 18,216. Across they are here again Opole and Lubusz Voivodeships with 3,857 and 3,633 apartments, respectively.
In August itself It wasn't that good anymore. Inheritances compared to July (i.e month to month) are visible in all mentioned above categories – although they are not very large everywhere. The number of permits issued was 4%. less, the number of construction starts decreased by 0.4%, and the number of apartments completed decreased by 21.7%. less.
This is what the last little over 4.5 years, month by month, look like on the chart when it comes to all three housing data from the Central Statistical Office (apartments completed, construction starts and permits issued):
There are slight declines at the end of this month. The strongest when it comes to completed apartments. It is worth noting that in recent months the number of apartments for which building permits have been issued has increased significantly – if these constructions begin, the number of apartments transferred should increase after a few quarters.
What is happening with the construction of apartments?
So how is it, good or bad? From, let's say, the development side, there are signals that the situation is not great. The Otodom Analytics expert, in her commentary on the above-mentioned Central Statistical Office data, emphasizes that the number of apartments put into use is decreasing. In August it fell by 18%. year to year and 21 percent month to month. In the case of developers only (i.e. not including individual investors), the declines are even deeper – by 30%. year to year and 26 percent month to month. “It is the worst August result in eight years (you have to go back to 2017 to find a worse result than this year's in August),” he writes Katarzyna Kuniewicz With Otodom Analytics. She titled this comment “GUS data may be disturbing”, and its first sentence is: “If we believe that housing construction has an impact on economic development in Poland, the August data from the Central Statistical Office should be treated as a warning signal.”
Katarzyna Kuniewicz also notes that “across the country, the surplus of permits over construction works started by developers is systematically increasing”. Developers do not use about one fifth of building permits – they apply for them and then do not start work. According to Katarzyna Kuniewicz, we should wait for the publication of more detailed geographical data at the poviat level, because there may be an explanation of the causes of this situation.
There is an oversupply
There are also voices of experts and observers that the housing market in Poland can be said to be… oversupply. This was the voice of the data on construction and assembly production published a few days ago by the Central Statistical Office. It fell much more than expected – by as much as 9.6 percent year to year. In the building construction category, production shrank by 7.9%. year to year (in July it was -8.3%). According to ING economistsis primarily a picture of the shortness of breath in residential construction (although it is not perfect in commercial construction either).
“Housing developers continue to struggle with an oversupply of expensive apartments – already started projects are being completed and demand for real estate remains weak. As a result, the number of ready apartments on offer is increasing. Potential buyers are probably waiting for details all the time moving away in time government support housing market. This is also a problem high price level apartments and interest rates. Although the number of commenced investments has increased significantly recently, this most likely means reporting new investments, not the actual commencement of construction works,” they write. In their opinion, a rebound in residential construction may occur next year.
Otodom Analytic presented its own at the beginning of September reportwhere oversupply is also visible. Data from this company show that at the end of August, 52,000 were on offer in the seven largest markets in Poland (Warsaw, Tricity, Łódź, Wrocław, Kraków, Poznań, Katowice). developer apartments – by 50 percent more than a year earlier. It was the eighth month in a row when there were more apartments put on the market than sold. The report noted that “in Łódź, Poznań, Wrocław and Katowice the primary market is already facing oversupply“, and developers and their clients, according to Otodom Analytics, “are waiting for an external impulse that will stimulate demand again.”
According to more recent data from the OLX and Otodom advertising portals, as of September 27, a total of 88,163 apartments are for sale in six cities – Warsaw, Kraków, Wrocław, Gdańsk, Poznań and Łódź. Compared to the same period a year ago, this is an increase of as much as 34,440 premises. – I know that from customers there is now such a choice of apartments that it is a universe. But it also works for sellers. I now have two such clients who are waiting for the sale, because it is a combined transaction. They need funds for a down payment for another property and there is a problem with selling it. There are no calls from anyone interested, he told us Łukasz Sroczyński, loan broker from Poznań. We write more about this in the linked text below:
What about these subsidies?
The impetus for the demand for apartments was, of course, supposed to be the new government program to support mortgage borrowers, which was to replace the expired “2% Safe Loan”, implemented by the previous government. This new program, commonly called “0% loan”and officially “Starting loan” was supposed to come into force this year (the approximate date was postponed). However, there is no consensus on it within the ruling coalition itself. KO and PSL (which stubbornly defends this idea) are in favor of Poland 2050, strongly against it, justifying their stance with the risk of conquering prices apartments. The Left is also against it.
The politicians of the latter group were helped by the need to rebuild after the flood that destroyed cities in southwestern Poland. Means earmarked for the mortgage subsidy project this year will remain transferred to help for flood victims – announced on Wednesday at the Parliamentary Infrastructure Committee, Deputy Minister of Development and Technology, Jacek Tomczak from PSL. The Minister of Finance, Andrzej Domański, had previously suggested the same thing.
During the above-mentioned committee, Deputy Minister Tomczak caused a storm by defending the idea of credit support in an unusual way. – I would also point out that in the long-term housing policy, Poles invest in apartments, among other things, to escape from inflation and invest their money there. And the assumption is that they will not lose, which means that prices are rising – he said.
The minister was criticized not only by the leftist commentariat, but also from within the government. “An apartment is not a means of speculation and quick profit, but a place where people live, start families and develop. Politicians should understand that high prices and lack of availability mean taking away opportunities from citizens. That is why we do not agree to a 0% loan. We want construction social and affordable housing! – wrote on X Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz (from Poland 2050), head of the Ministry of Funds and Regional Policy. A final and clear decision whether the programLoan “to start” will come into force next year, there is no.