The seven largest bookmakers in the US predict, on average, 59.7% that Donald Trump will win the election. In turn, an average of 38.9% of people bet on Kamala Harris to win. – according to the website's data realclearpolling.com. That gives Trump a lead of about 21 percentage points.
US elections. Donald Trump's strong advantage over Kamala Harris among bookmakers
It is worth noting that Trump's advantage “expanded” before the failed coup in mid-July 2024. The largest American bookmakers then bet on his victory at over 65%. In the following days, his advantage was decreasing. In early August, Kamala Harris took the lead, but it didn't last long. At the beginning October American bookmakers again started betting on Donald Trump's victory.
It is also worth adding that since 1866, bookmakers have been wrong in predicting the result only twice presidential elections in the USA – indicated by an independent non-profit organization “The Conversation“.
US elections – who will win? “The result is quite obvious.”
The victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will affect, among others: for the course dollar and the stock exchange. – The result is quite obvious. In a sense, the market bet on Donald Trump. His win will strengthen the dollar and increase the stock markets, but they will probably not be huge, because it has already been largely priced in – Dr. Przemysław Kwiecień, chief economist at XTB, said in an interview with Next.gazeta.pl.
In turn, Kamala Harris' possible victory will have the opposite effect. – The loss will work in the opposite direction, i.e. negatively for the dollar. Especially towards the euro. And the zloty may behave differently in such situations. Markets live on such events in the short term, our interlocutor explained.