– I don't think there will be very big changes. America will focus on internal problems. I think we are significantly overestimating the victories, whether by Trump or Harris, he says in an interview with Interia Dr. Łukasz Gołota from the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, University of Warsaw, when we ask about the new president's policy.
American allies' concerns about policy Donald Trump w Asiaappeared already during his first presidency, when he alleged Taiwan taking away from the Americans semiconductor market and emphasized that the Asian country he should pay for his own defense. Do now United States they will reduce their activity in the conflict China-Taiwan?
– America will be present in Asia and will protect its interests there. Regardless of who is president, it's still there The permanent establishment has a major influence on the shape of United States foreign policy advisory – emphasizes Gołota.
Our interlocutor adds, however, that in Trump's statements and announcements it is unclear what constitutes real plans and what is a rhetorical trick for domestic policy purposes. In this year's campaign, he spoke, among others, about: introduction of 60 percent customs duties on goods from Chinawhich some American experts assessed as an announcement new trade war. Donald Trump he also introduced tariffs during his first presidency.
Donald Trump “was right.” China “crossed the Rubicon”
– Trump, with all his populism and aggressiveness that is natural in American politics, is still true when it comes to China abusing its position in the global trading system, he was right. I Biden took over. The Americans have not eliminated tariffs on Chinese products, points out Gołota.
It also highlights the scale of the problem. When the Americans introduced tariffs on products from China, it theoretically went against the basic principles of global trade. – You cannot withdraw from previously made commitments. This is art. 20 GATT (General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade – ed.). The Americans argued that they had suddenly raised tariffs on Chinese products because the Chinese they steal intellectual property in a gross, systemic way and the Chinese government allows it. That's why the Americans explained that they had to raise tariffs because it offended their public morality, says Gołota.
Interia's interlocutor adds that currently we are dealing with slightly different conditions.
– It's no secret that The Chinese abused the agreement to a certain point on the intellectual property protection system. But for some time now they file more patent applications than Americans. They have crossed the Rubicon – emphasizes Gołota.
US election results. Expert indicates “new reality”
So what will Trump do? Will it really start a new tariff war? – It is not that important whether it is 50, 60 or 70 percent. duty. The question is whether global trade rules will be scuttledwhich would mean the end of the order based on globalization and liberalism – points out our interlocutor.
Dr. Gołota emphasizes that this would mean construction “new reality”. – Based not on a single, multilateral trade system in which all countries participate and share common values it will be a world of regions, competing trading blocs – says Interia.
It also indicates that European Union i United States They were supporters of globalization until they stopped deriving the greatest profits from it. – How did China appear in the system, Brazildeveloping countries, the West suddenly lost the desire for pure competition. Americans first talked about free trade, then about fair trade, and now they talk about workers' rights and environmental protection. And developing countries are very assertive in imposing solutions that are beneficial to themselves, emphasizes Dr. Łukasz Gołota.
Want to talk to the author? Write to jakub.krzywecki@firma.interia.pl
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