Rates remain unchanged, loans become more expensive

Data collected by Sadowski shows that PKO BP increased the fixed interest rate from 6.78 percent. up to 7.65 percent increases also appeared in: BNP Paribas (from 6.6 percent to 7.3 percent), ING Bank Śląski (from 6.95 percent to 7.37 percent) and Velo Bank (from 6.7 percent). up to 7.44 percent).

“Such a change (as in PKO BP) will result in the total installments increasing by as much as PLN 13,432 over the 5-year period of this interest rate. We also have bad news for those saving on bank deposits. Their interest rates are falling and inflation is rising, which means higher and higher losses in real terms. To beat inflation of 5 percent, the deposit interest rate must exceed 6.17 percent, and there are not many such offers,” we read in the commentary.

Rankomat indicates that “people who postponed taking out a mortgage loan in October were unlucky.” Just last month, there were offers available with fixed interest rates below 7 percent. However, these days it is difficult to find them.

Unfortunately, we cannot escape price increases by choosing offers with variable interest rates. In their case, the interest rate is even higher, although there is a chance of a decrease if they start to fall interest rates.

“In the case of a fixed interest rate, you can try to wait for the NBP interest rates to drop. Then the rates for new loans will be lower. However, this solution also has a disadvantage. Currently, there are few buyers, so there is a large selection of apartments and it is easy to negotiate a significant reduction. When the rates drop, demand will increase and sellers may no longer be willing to negotiate,” Rankomat points out.

It is also worth remembering that the loan can be refinanced, i.e. transferred to another bank. Then the interest rate is determined anew. It is true that the Polish Financial Supervision Authority prohibited banks from refinancing loans with fixed interest rates into variable ones. There is nothing stopping you from exchanging a loan with a fixed interest rate for another, cheaper loan with a fixed interest rate.

Jarosław Sadowski reminds that although the latest decision of the Monetary Policy Council did not affect the interest rates on deposits and bank accounts, people who save this way are in an increasingly worse situation. That's because inflation is getting higher.

“According to preliminary data from the Central Statistical Office, in October it was 5% y/y, and the worst is yet to come. Forecasts say that we will see even higher levels in the following months. Inflation is expected to reach its peak in the first quarter of 2025 and start to decline thereafter. throughout 2025, it is expected to amount to an annual average of 4.5%-5%. – points out the expert.

As a result, the money we keep in banks loses its value faster and faster. A year ago, the average interest rate on deposits was 4.61%, and since then the price increase has been 5%. This means that the amount from the deposit ending in October was theoretically higher than the deposited amount, but it could have bought less. The loss was 1.21 percent.

“In turn, the latest NBP data (for September 2024) shows that the average interest rate on deposits was 4.08 percent. Interestingly, the level of NBP interest rates has not changed since January, and the average interest rate on deposits has decreased by 0.36 percentage points. Taking into account inflation forecasts, such deposits will also bring losses in real terms. If inflation in the next 12 months is 5%, the interest rate on the deposit or bond must be at least 6.17% to protect the savings against loss of value,” noted Jarosław Sadowski. .