Donald Trump will most likely become the 47th president of the United States. In the election, he managed to collect 276 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris collected 223. You can learn more about this from Gazeta.pl's report: “US elections. The Americans chose. Donald Trump will be the 47th president [NA ŻYWO]“. Analysts of the Polish economy reacted to the reports from overseas. Experts from ING Economics Poland revealed what exactly Trump's victory means.
Polish analysts on the future of the zloty. Changes due to the new US president
“The US election results counted so far indicate a victory for Trump and the Republicans in the Senate; whether there will be a full victory in the so-called clean sweep depends on the result in the House of Representatives, where the votes are evenly distributed. […] Whether Trump and the Republicans will have full control of Congress or 'only' the presidency is of great importance for the durability of strengthening dollar and weaknesses of emerging currencies,” analysts from ING Economics Poland explained in a post on the X platform.
According to experts, confirmation of Donald Trump's victory “may mean further strengthening of the dollar and weakening of the zloty to approximately 4.40-4.45 and an increase in bond yields in the US and Poland.”
Experts' scenario if Donald Trump wins. What will it involve?
Analysts also maintain their opinion that the victory of the Republican representative will be associated with:
- higher inflation in the US and higher Fed rates;
- strong dollar, “because Trump's victory means fewer rate cuts in the US, but more ECB rate cuts, in addition, his agenda supports the US stock exchange, but is unfavorable for many other economies, all this means an inflow of capital to the US”;
- weaker emerging currencies, because “higher rates in the US are a problem for many EM countries (developing economies – ed.) with deficits and debts, and the protectionist policy of the US undermines international trade, which is important for many EMs.”