The reason is simple: The US fiscal year ends on September 30 and by then Congress should have passed a new budget. However, this has not been possible for years. That's why almost every year in the fall and winter, the topic of a provisional budget comes up that would sustain the state's operations until politicians reach an agreement. Negotiations over these stopgaps are used by both sides to achieve additional goals. Because many things can be “attached” to such an act, which must be passed.
And this is where the problems begin. Republicans have a majority in the House of Representatives, but their advantage is minimal. All it takes is for a few congressmen to break out and they will no longer be able to pass anything on their own. The radical wing of the party knows this very well and uses such opportunities to force concessions from the leadership of their own party. Therefore, when voting on previous provisionals or, for example, the aid package for… Ukraine Speaker Johnson was forced to seek help from Democrats. It was no different this time.
The final test for Mike Johnson
Democrats, however, are well aware of the fragility of Johnson's position. Nominally, he leads the majority in the House of Representatives, but in practice he is constantly checked by radical politicians from his own camp. In early January, when the new Congress is sworn in, he will face a difficult fight to maintain his position. And in the clash with radicals, it has been his main advantage so far President Trump's support. The vote on the provisional budget is the ultimate test of political effectiveness for Johnson.
That's why Democrats bid high: if the Republican speaker wants a deal, he'll have to pay dearly for it. The compromise bill included provisions regarding health care, aid for disaster victims, and even (for the first time since 2009) raises for politicians in Congress. Shortly before the vote, congressmen saw a document of approximately 1,500 pages, which can hardly be called a provisional budget.
Republican radicals opposed. In their opinion concessions to Democrats went too farand they expected budget cuts rather than further increases in spending. This is exactly what Johnson might have expected. Later, however, he joined the game Elon Musk.
A businessman who has been working closely with Donald Trump for several months, supported his campaign with millions of dollars, and in the new administration will be responsible for government efficiency, spoke out strongly against the provisional budget. Using his reach on the X platform, he began an intense crusade against the bipartisan-agreed bill.
Finally he spoke himself Donald Trump. In a statement issued jointly with the vice president-elect J.D. Vance’m criticized the act. He called on Republican politicians to be “smart and tough” on Democrats, proving the other side is bluffing. Finally, he decided to further complicate an already difficult situation by calling for the debt limit to be raised along with the provisional budget.
Without raising the limit – US bankruptcy
The debt limit is the threshold above which the American state cannot incur new obligations. That is why it has been raised regularly for years. If that didn't work out, The USA is threatened with bankruptcy and economic disaster. However, for Republican politicians who talk a lot about limiting state spending, the need to raise this limit (which will appear in the coming months anyway) will be difficult in terms of image. Therefore, Trump would like to pass on this thankless task to the outgoing Biden administration. However, the chances of this happening are not very high.
Negotiations over the debt limit usually drag on for months, and their finale can be as tense as the current fight over the provisional budget. Democrats, on the other hand, will not be willing to make major concessions. They can always tell voters that they reached a compromise that was later unilaterally rejected by Republicans.
They have the majority in the House of Representatives, even if it is weak and shaky. On January 20, the Republican president will take office. Before that, Republican congressmen will have to reach an agreement regarding the speaker – is Johnosn staying or do we need to look for someone new?
The Democratic leadership is therefore sending clear signals that Fr there can be no concessions. A compromise has been reached, and if Republicans can't stick to it, that's their problem.
And indeed, this will be primarily a Republican problem. Johnson's position has weakened even more, Trump is determined to show that he will not give in to the opposition, Musk is testing his political strength. Eventually some agreement will be reached, the only question is how long it might take. At the turn of 2018 and 2019, Trump led a government shutdown that lasted over a month. If this were to happen again, his second term would begin amid political chaos and public discontent.