There was not much publicity about this visit. A few days ago we wrote about reports from Indian media announcing it, and earlier this week there was confirmation: Narendra Modi will fly to Poland. Only on Tuesday afternoon did the Polish side officially comment on the matter – Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. Modi will appear on Wednesday, August 21 and will stay until Thursday. He will meet with the president Andrzej Duda and the Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Then will go to Ukraine – this is actually the main reason for his trip to Europe and Poland is sort of “on the way”. But this does not mean that the Warsaw talks should be treated as unimportant.
Indian Prime Minister in Poland. This is the first such visit in 45 years
It is very important that this visit is taking place at all. Of course, it is taking place on the occasion of Prime Minister Modi's visit to Ukraine, but it is still a revival of relations between our countries. In these relations, not much has happened over the last dozen or so years, we have not had such a visit from India for 45 years. And yet India is today a major world power, maybe not of the same rank as China or the United States, but right behind them.
– he tells us Patrick Kugelanalyst Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM). And economically India will soon be behind the first two. According to the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund, India will overtake Japan and Germany and become the third largest economy in the world. The IMF believes that this will happen in a few years – just a few days ago the Fund moved the date of this passing game forward, to 2027.
Currently, India is the fifth largest economy, with a size (nominal GDP value) approaching 4 trillion dollars (and according to forecasts it will surpass it this year). Ahead of them are (in order from the top) the United States (about 28 trillion dollars), China (over 15 trillion), Germany (4.5 trillion) and Japan (4.1 trillion). India is growing at a rate of 6-7 percent per year, the fastest of the G20 economies. And it will continue to do so in the next two years (i.e. this year and 2025) The country's GDP is expected to grow by 7 percent. The IMF has raised expectations on this topic twice this year. India is to be helped by a rebound in private consumption and favourable weather conditions (monsoon season), which is to bring higher crops and, consequently, higher profits from agriculture, which will further boost consumption in rural areas.
In one shot India They are already there in third place in the world – in terms of GDP in terms of purchasing power parity (China is first, the USA is second). This indicator takes into account not only GDP but also the number of inhabitants and prices in a given country, so it allows for better comparison of countries with each other.
India is a country with huge ambitions to play a leading role in the world, the most populous country in the world. So this is not a small visit, the leader of a superpower is coming to Poland
– emphasizes Patryk Kugiel.
Four decades without visits
The last Indian Prime Minister to visit Poland was Morari Desai and he did it in June 1979 (He resigned shortly thereafter, in late July of that same year.) Our country was in a very different place than it is now, economically, politically, and in many other ways (the world looked very different, too, although some dark references to the past, including forms of the “cold war,” have been making a comeback in recent years).
Later, for over four decades, there were no such contacts. Why? – Poland seemed unattractive to India, and we did not see them as an important player. Besides, both we and they were busy with our own affairs, problems in our own neighborhood. Polish politics for a long time had little interest in the world other than the West, only after joining the EU did we start to look around. And in Asia we bet on the wrong horse in my opinion. We focused all attention on ChinaIndia did not seem attractive to us – says Patryk Kugiel.
Relations with India were underinvested. We did not prepare a good offer for them, and yet Poland should strive for it. India has a choice, the most important politicians in the world come there, and everyone else tries to get such a visit. They did not have to strive for a medium-sized country. Only recently they are discovering Central Europe, and we – I hope – are discovering India. It is a completely different country than 20 years ago, today it is a world power and we have to realize that.
– emphasizes the PISM expert.
New player on the world map
Narendra Modiwho recently secured a third term as prime minister, has huge ambitions. India wants to get ahead of the world peloton. On the one hand, economically, among other things taking advantage of the so-called demographic dividend. They would also like to become the voice of the countries of the Global South, taking over this role, at least in part, from China. And they have had some success in this field. They recently chaired the G20 and were considered the main winner of this group's summit last November.
They also try to maintain good relations with the Western part of the world. – Today, India has historically the best relations with the EU and the United States. Relations between India and the West have never been as good as they are now – says Patryk Kugiel. Both the highest-ranking American and European politicians are trying to meet with Modi, as are those who cannot count on any conversation anywhere else – such as Vladimir Putin. Modi was recently in Moscow, which was not well received in Ukraine itself, in Europe or the United States. Similarly, India's general approach to the war that Russia has unleashed in Ukraine is not.
It is difficult to expect any breakthrough effects from Modi's visit to Kiev, where he is to go immediately after visiting Poland, but can the mere appearance of the Indian leader there be considered some kind of declaration? This is a declaration that India wants to be neutral. and have balanced relations with both sides of the war – says the PISM expert.
What is happening now is also a kind of rescue operation, but at the same time it shows that India is not changing its policy towards the war in Ukraine. It is trying not to alienate anyone, to be halfway, neutral. From the beginning they have been saying that this conflict must end through negotiations, they have never criticized Russia's aggression. From our point of view, such an attitude is rather pro-Russian. This has also made Polish-Ukrainian relations difficult.
– notes Kugiel. Now, India's position as a potential mediator is growing. Also because, despite the Kursk offensive of the Ukrainians, the visit to Kiev has not been canceled. – The second topic of talks in Kiev will probably be the reconstruction of the country after the war. India has capital and companies that would be interested in this – suspects Patryk Kugiel.
What can Poland gain?
Well, what about the benefits for Poland? We shouldn't expect any specifics in the form of numerous signed economic agreements. The visit of the Indian Prime Minister may be an opportunity to unblock relations between our countries. – She is rather supposed to send political signalthat we see each other and want to cooperate more closely. There are also expectations that the main result may be a political declaration on the establishment of a strategic partnership. Poland would then join the group of several countries in Europe that have such relations with India at the highest level – says the PISM expert.
India is positioning itself as an alternative to China in global supply chains. It wants to attract investment, which is supported by a still young society. It is also focusing on infrastructure, building roads, ports and railways.
India is a huge construction site, it is like China 30 years ago. Those who have the capital, technology, and opportunities to enter this market today will certainly not regret it. The number of consumers there is growing every year, purchasing power is growing, and there are public investments. India is modernizing and this applies to almost every sector. The population in cities will double, to 800 million people – it will be necessary to build twice as many cities as there are now.
– Patryk Kugiel notes. Where could we enter in terms of sectors? According to earlier reports, economic topics are to appear during Modi's visit to Poland. In which sectors would we cooperate? It could be construction, environmental protection, the mining sector, energy, including green energy, digitalization. In addition, there are new technologies, the biotechnology industry or the space sector, in which India operates very dynamically and Poland would like to make its presence felt. A big topic could be defence, important for both countries. According to Patryk Kugel, Poland could, for example, deal with the modernisation and maintenance of Indian equipment. It comes from the USSR or Russia, we no longer have such equipment, because we transferred it to Ukraine, but we still have competences in this area. India – who knows – may also want to invest in Poland. In Europe, they are already building airports, for example – like in Greece. In addition, there is scientific cooperation and human capital.
This visit must draw the attention of Polish business and society to India. We need to update the image of this country, not as an exotic developing country, but as a rising power that offers many economic opportunities. I hope that the Polish state will invest more in these relations, financially and in terms of personnel. For a year and a half, we have not had an ambassador in India, we have not had a staff at the Polish Institute in Delhi, and the foreign office of the Polish Investment and Trade Agency is not operating. Therefore, we do not have the tools to develop these relations.
– emphasizes Patryk Kugiel.
India is a country of young people (the median age there is less than 29) and they have to find employment for a huge number of people of working age. They have to create new jobs – for now, the labor force activity rate is low there, at around 50 percent (this rate is the number of people aged 15 and over who are working or looking for work divided by the number of all people of working age). This means that only half of those who could work due to their age are unemployed. And this huge labor force is still growing, 12 million people enter the job market every year people. This could be a chance for those who are able to invest in India. Maybe for Poland?