As for the average period, the projection gives hope that at the current level of interest rates of the National Bank of Poland, inflation will decrease in 2026. At the same time, in 2027 it will be consistent with the inflation goal – said the president of the National Bank of Poland (NBP) at a press conference Adam Glapiński. – However, let's agree, quite a distant horizon – he emphasized.
The President of the NBP said that at the end of the year inflation It can be similar to the one from 2024, i.e. it will amount to about 5 percent.
Glapiński about inflation
The President of the NBP noted that in January 2024 inflation was 3.7 percent, while in January 2025 it reached 5.3 percent. – In the first quarter of 2024, inflation was in order and then soared up. Over the past few quarters, inflation has more than twice and twice exceeds the inflationary goal – noted the head of the central bank. Glapiński emphasized that the NBP is statutorily obliged to pursue such a policy that the level of inflation would approach the target. – We are to do everything to reach a level of 2.5 percent in the medium period. If this goal is achieved, the achievement of the second goal, which is the support of the state's development policy, is at stake – he said. The head of the Central Bank pointed out that the current level of inflation is the highest in over 20 years, apart from the period of pandemic and energy shock related to Russian aggression on Ukraine. – High inflation is mainly the effect of regulatory and fiber factors. In recent months and quarters, they have increased strongly Energy pricesit was also raised VAT for food. There were excise duty for alcoholic beverages and cigarettes. Inflation is also conquered by increases of administered water prices, as well as an increase in gas prices since January 2025 – enumerated Glapiński.
Forecasts
The President of the NBP added that according to the forecasts of the Central Bank this year, inflation “will not fall monotonicly towards the inflation target”. On average annually it will be higher than in 2024 – he said. According to the new inflation projection, inflation will drop to 4.1 percent in the third quarter, but this will result from statistical effects, and in the fourth quarter of this year there will be a re -increase in inflation due to an increase in electricity prices – said Glapiński.
Interest rates
Glapiński said that interest rate stabilization is now absolutely necessary to reduce inflation to the NBP target.
He added that a strong increase in inflation with high wage dynamics, increased base inflation, progressive economic recovery does not give any grounds for foot reductions.
At the meeting of the Monetary Policy Council ended on Wednesday, the interest rates of the National Bank of Poland at an unchanged level. Main NBP interest ratereference rate, is still 5.75 percent.
The lombard rate was maintained at 6.25 percent. On an annual scale, the deposit rate is still 5.25 percent, the reducover rate of bills of exchange – 5.8 percent, and the discount rate – 5.85 percent. on an annual basis.
The MPC for the last time changed interest rates in October 2023. At that time, it reduced the NBP rates by 25 points. base to the current level.
Source of the main photo: Radek Pietruszka/PAP