Analyst: this is the goal of China

During the term Joe Bidenwhich was in favor of a strong transatlantic alliance, there was a rapprochement in the approach to Beijing between Washington and Brussels, which in response to the American “decoupling” (separation of economic relationships) on Chinadeveloped her “derising” strategy (risk reduction).

In recent years, the EU has also taken a number of actions to protect the domestic market against dishonest commercial practices of China, e.g. by putting customs duties on the import of Chinese electric cars sold at artificially low prices.

The current slump on the EU-US line in commercial matters and foreign policy arose the question of whether its effect would also be a weakening of the coordination of the approach to China, and as a result of alleviating the EU line towards Beijing.

– From the perspective of Beijing, what is happening now on the EU -US line is a happy development of accidents – says Stec. – The main goal of the policy of Chinese authorities towards Europe is to break the transatlantic bonds and reducing the danger that European Union It will participate in the American strategy “stopping China” – he emphasizes.

Beijing has been supporting the project of developing the “strategic autonomy” of the EU for many years, a concept promoted in the community, among others by the French President Emmanuel Macron. However, while the goal of Paris and its European allies is the greater EU independence than other countries in strategic areas (including military or industrial), China interpret this concept mainly as the separation of the EU from USA.

As the analyst explains, Beijing depends primarily that Europe does not join American restrictions on exporting key technologies or restrictions in access to its market.

Stec points out that since Trump's return, representatives of the Chinese authorities with double strength promote the message in the EU that China – unlike the US – is a guarantee of the stability of international order, and therefore a more reliable partner. – This is not a new story, but again played the same album that we heard earlier. But Now the context has changed and Beijing is trying to use it – indicates the analyst.

According to Stec, this narrative gained some supporters on the Old Continent, seeing in cooperation with China a chance to limit damage to international turmoil. – We are at a moment of very large geopolitical uncertainty, so some in Europe have such reflex reactions – emphasizes Stec.

The first expansion signals on the European side can already be seen. The EU resumed negotiations with China regarding tariffs for the import of electric cars, and at the end of July the EU-China summit will take place in Beijing.

According to some commentators, the decision to visit the head of the EC Ursula von der Leyen and the chairman of the European Council Antonio Costa in the capital of China – although according to the protocol this time the summit should take place in Brussels – signals the determination of the community to recover in relations with Beijing.

This visit is also more broadly part of a series of traveling European leaders to China. In mid -April, the Prime Minister stayed with a visit to the Middle Kingdom Spain Pedro Sanchezwho called on the EU to strengthen trade relations with Beijing, while describing the American duties as “unjustified, unfair and harmful to everyone.”

However – as Stec points out – despite the tactical rapprochement, the EU generally has not changed the belief that cooperation with China carries the risk.

– Our Chinese partners underestimate that in recent years some mental work has been carried out in Europe and the assessment of what China is really at present and what kind of threat they are for Europe – emphasizes the Merics analyst.

In his opinion, although Trump's return changed the geopolitical context of the EU-China relationship, in these relationships, nothing “nothing has changed”. – The approach to huge problems in our relations are still Russiacontradictory value systems and production surplus China – says the analyst.

With the exacerbation of the customs conflict between China and the USA, the issue of Chinese overproduction has become even more burning in the EU. In Europe, there are fears that one of the effects of Trump imposing 145 % tariffs on imports from China may be the redirection to the EU of some Chinese goods, originally intended for the American market.

If we do not protect ourselves against Chinese products through steps limiting imports, all our industrial industries will feel great problems – warned the Minister of Industry on Tuesday France Marc Ferracci.

Added to this is how Washington will look at potential warming on the EU-China line. The American finance minister Scott Bessent warned countries that want to strengthen cooperation with China that they risk “giving their own throat”. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, the US administration in negotiations with EU countries about duties arises to introduce trade restrictions against China.

Above all, however, the EU did not get any specific offer from Beijing – notes Stec.

– The Chinese are convinced that they are in a good negotiation situation and their position will only grow as the tension increases between Europe and the states. So we should not expect a real proposal that would solve these fundamental differences between us – emphasizes the Merics analyst.