It is getting closer to the pain threshold for exporters – says Sławomir Dudek, an economist on TVN24. – We are a country based strongly on export. The ratio of exports to GDP, i.e. the sum of the products manufactured, is almost 60 percent. He explains that when the value of the zloty increases, “profit on export is lower”. The zloty in recent days strengthens against the euro and dollar, reaching its long -term maxima.
The zloty during the Tuesday session climbed to the new 8-year Maks in relation to the euro, which cost up to 4.131 zlotys. Later, our currency gave almost all the profits and at the end of the euro session is quoted slightly above 4.14 zlotys. In relation to the dollar, the zloty strengthens throughout the entire session, less than 0.5 percent. up to PLN 3.942, piercing in the afternoon from the top 3.94. The dollar is the cheapest since October 2024.
– We are a country based strongly on export. Export relationship to GDPthat is, to the sum of the products produced, it is almost 60 percent. We are an average open economy – this is what it is called – says on TVN24 Dr. Sławomir Dudek, economist, president of the Institute of Finance, SHG. He added that the present zloty course It is not the best news for the euro for the euro. As he explained in such a situation, the profitability of exports decreases. – Profit on export is smaller – he explains.
“Pain threshold” for exporters
As the TVN24 guest adds, half of the employment in Poland, this is employment in exporting companies. As he explained, “in these companies profitability sits down”. – The percentage of companies that report that exports cease to be profitable – says Sławomir Dudek. As the National Bank of Poland explains, since this course begins to bother exporters strongly, because their profitability is smaller, and “we still have this buffer”.
The economist, when asked about the “pain threshold” for exporters, explains that “he is not permanent, he decreases.” According to him, such a limit is PLN 4 per euro. – Around 4 – this will really be a strong problem. For now, we have 4.14 – 4.15 (zlotys – ed.). But it is getting closer to the “pain threshold” for exporters, where it will be unprofitable for them – says the expert.
Asked if he thinks the zloty exchange rate can still increase, he explains that “forecasting a exchange rate is one of the more difficult”.
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