“The Czechs will die for 400 years” – sounds shocking, but Czech media alert about the demographic crisis that caught our southern neighbors. Alarms with “decreasing fertility” and “aging of society” in Poland are well known. Finally, the history of 500+ began with this, which somehow set up Polish policy in the last decade. In parallel in the Czech Republic, not complained about fertility. We took the Czechs many times as an example of a successful demographic policy.
The end of the “Czech miracle”? Surprisingly bad data
There was talk in the context of the Czech Republic about “demographic miracle”. Not so long ago, because in 2021, the fertility rate of TFR (showing how many children a woman would give birth during the entire breeding period, if the birth intensity would remain unchanged at the level of the examined year) was 1.83 there. In Poland he was at the level of 1.33.
Meanwhile In two years it fell to level 1.45, which approached the EU average (1.38). In 2023, only 91.1 thousand were born in the Czech Republic. kids. It is over 10,000 Less than in 2022, more, preliminary estimates show that 2024 was even worse. It is forecasted that about 80,000 were born. Czechs. If this is confirmed, this would be the lowest result in the history of measurements from 1785. So no “miracle” can be said.
I wonder why this Czech demographic miracle at some point turned out to be … well, more and more the past, not the present
– notes Dr. Krzysztof Dębiec, who devoted his latest demographics in the Czech Republic comment for the Eastern Studies Center (OSW).
I mean, the situation is not tragic at the moment. If we look at the Czech fertility rate, it is still above the average European Union and is much higher than in Poland. Whereas The pace at which he falls is the fastest in the entire European Union – he adds.
It seemed that the Czechs “prevented” the development of the demographic crisis. Maternity allowance in the amount of 70 percent The salaries are paid for 28 weeks after the birth of a child, and a parental allowance of about 59 thousand in total. PLN (paid monthly up to 4 years old), a child allowance (up to PLN 280 per month, paid to the age of 26, but depending on the income and age of the child), tax breaks (two to four times higher than in Poland) and parental leave up to the 3rd year of the child. However, all this is not enough.
Young people don't want children. Why?
The latest study of scientists from the Masaryk University in Brno and the Charles University in Prague shows that between 2020 and 2022 the percentage of people aged 18-39 who declare that they want to have children in the long term, fell from 39 percent. up to 29 percent (I am talking about childless people). In turn, among all respondents (having and not children) the percentage of people who want to have offspring in the next three years, fell from 42 percent. up to 30 percent The dramatic decline in fertility can be confirmed by this survey data. So you should ask the question: what happened to the Czechs that they no longer want to have children?
– I selected two issues that can play an important role here, one of which actually distinguishes the Czech Republic from Poland – says OSW expert.
I mean the crisis of the inheritance of the purchasing power of payroll, i.e. a real decline in the standard of living. The Czech government compensated for inflation, including energy prices, in a relatively small degree
– According to recent Eurostat data, if we include purchasing power parity, the Czechs still pay the most for electricity throughout the European Union. And if we look at the data on the purchasing power of payroll, then in each subsequent quarter of 2022-2023 in annual terms (i.e. the first quarter 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021 etc.) This purchasing power fell. This definitely distinguishes the Czech Republic from Poland – explains Dr. Krzysztof Dębiec in an interview with Next.gazeta.pl.
Apartments are not only Poland's problem. And so we have better than the Czechs
Czech media also write about the economic situation. A certain derivative of financial problems was included in the mentioned study. It clearly shows that having an apartment even for rental makes Czechs more eager to plan the future with children. Let's emphasize this clearly: Even a rented apartment gives the Czechs a sense of independence, because the situation on the local housing market is dramatic.
The Czech Republic is in the absolute lead of European countries, if we convert how many medium salaries a resident of a given country must be paid to buy a flat with a specific standard. According to the study of the Deloitte advisory company, published last year Over 13 years of salaries need to be allocated to an apartment with an area of 70 m2. These are the most of 18 analyzed countries. Poland is half of the rate with a score of 7.9
– explains the OSW analyst.
– In particular, Prague, which is the undisputed center of the country, has been struggling with the problem of apartments for years. They are made in definitely insufficient number, and if they are already available, it's very expensive – he notes. – In addition, the way of using apartments is an important issue. Many of them are intended for short -term rental for tourists. In Poland, this phenomenon is not so common, but in the Czech Republic it has a significant impact on the housing market, which is negatively affected by people looking for long -term rental – he adds.
The demographic crisis sinks the European Union. In the background a war in Ukraine
The problem with demographics, however, is a problem not only of the Czechs, but the entire European Union. In fact, as Dr. Dębiec notes, only three countries are an exception: Portugal, Bulgaria and Cyprus. What connects these countries is their relatively large distance from the greatest armed conflict in Europe since World War II, i.e. the war of Russia with Ukraine. And here he sees the second main reason for the decline in fertility in the Czech Republic.
– The Czech Republic is not a state of the eastern flank and they do not border with Russia or Ukraine, but in the media space this topic is widely discussed. The results of the survey show that the Czechs strongly identify with the Ukrainians and they are strongly experiencing this conflict, feeling an increase in war concerns. This can be seen in the example of data: in the years 2021-2023 the percentage of Czechs who express concerns about the war increased from 11 percent. up to 43 percent – says OSW analyst.
It indicates that there is another factor distinguishing the Czech Republic from Europe. This The largest number of accepted refugees from Ukraine per capita per capita. Poland is in second place in this respect, but the Czechs are clearly leading. According to data from the end of January, our southern neighbors have 36 refugees per 1000 inhabitants. – The presence of such a large number of Ukrainians can somewhat affect the social perception of the conflict and make the Czechs aware that war is not so distant – notes Dr. Krzysztof Dębiec. He also notes that their presence despite “moral arguments” has worsened the situation on the housing market.
The Czechs are also not free from cultural reasons, which are a little more difficult measurable, but they actually occur to all of Europe. – It comes, among others about decomposition of a traditional family model and changing the approach to relationships. The moment when women give birth to their first child also moved significantly: in the Czech Republic from 1990 to 2023, the average age of mother at the first delivery increased by up to 5 years. All these processes affect the demographic situation. Ultimately, we only see the final effect of the complex interaction of cultural, economic and social factors – notes Dr. Krzysztof Dębiec. The focus on this list can be added more on a career than parenting, which was mentioned by young Czechs in the already cited study.
Did the Czechs wake up too late? “Nothing is given forever”
Despite this, the Czechs chopped with their demographic successes of recent years (although it was still the result of the substitutes of generations between 2.10 and 2.15), they slept by the moment when demographics began to get out of control.
This topic in the Czech Republic began to sound only in the last year, which makes them in a sense two steps backwards compared to the countries that previously began to take action in this area
– notes the OSW analyst.
– In the Czech Republic there is no equivalent of the Polish program of 500+, and existing family benefits are granted at slightly different rules and in a much lower amount. The discussion on this subject is just developing. I am able to imagine that the new Czech government, which will be selected after the autumn elections to the Chamber of Deputies, will take into account the issues related to supporting fertility and pro -family policy. So it can be said that the Czechs are just waking up with the awareness of this problem and we can wait how they will approach it – he adds.
That is why dr Krzysztof Dębiec with a slight distance, but still the Czech example calls “a warning”. -The fertility is a lot of fluctuations. It cannot be said that throughout the 1990s and most of the 21st century in the Czech Republic it was higher than in Poland. If we look at the data from the 90s, until 2003 Poland had a higher fertility rate than the Czech Republic. At some point he fell in the Czech Republic to a level 1.1 – he reminds. – This can be associated with the period of reforms and system transformation of the 90s, which was associated with a decrease in the standard of living and a sense of security. At the time when these factors began to stabilize in some way, the reflection took place – he adds.
– However, I would not like to go to extremes, because there are also cultural factors that have contributed to the fact that for some time the Czechs were “primus” in this field. Then he came 2021, when various factors contributed to the fact that there was some reflection in the Czech Republic. In a sense, the Czech Republic can be a warning today: mainly in this context that issues related to both demographics and migrations are never given once and for all. Changes in these areas can be very dynamicas shown by 2022-2023 – says Dr. Krzysztof Dębiec.
Sources: OSW, Novinky.cz, Forum24, I am sezing, Český statistický úrad