Unlikely, but they can occur and if they did, it would cause a huge shock in financial markets. Saxo, as every year, has prepared its “shocking forecasts” for the next 12 months.
They are not official predictions, but a thought experiment that inspires strategic thinking (…) Significant market movements often result from events that previously seemed unrealistic
– says Marcin Ciechoński, responsible for the development of Saxo in Poland.
Scenario 1: Donald Trump sinks the US currency
Donald Trump's administration is imposing huge tariffs on all imports in 2025, while cutting the deficit and supporting the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) managed by Elon Musk. The dollar is weakening (by up to 20% compared to the most important currencies), which is a disaster for world trade. This cuts off the supply of dollars needed to maintain the functioning of the global system based on this currency.
Following this collapse, there is a risk of a strong increase in the dollar rate. Instead, security mechanisms are emerging, related to the intensive search for alternatives by global players. In such a case the US economy is still in reflationbut wages keep pace with growth prices goods, thanks to the transfer of production resources to the USA, which brings an advantage to American exporters.
Scenario 2: Nvidia outperforms Apple by two times
The large-scale availability of Blackwell's revolutionary 208 billion transistor chip is driving Nvidia's success. It makes AI calculation performance per unit energy consumption increases 25 times compared to the previous generation H100. Competition in the area artificial intelligence and rising energy costs make both large market players and government administrations switch to less energy-consuming Blackwell chips.
Nvidia wins the title thanks to this the most profitable company of all time. Its shares are trading well above 250 dollarsuntil the market begins to question the company's potential to generate even greater profits. Only regulatory control related to its monopoly position can lower its ratings.
Scenario 3: China pumps in huge amounts of money to revive the economy.
China focuses on reflation, i.e. increasing the scale of inflation in response to prices falling below production costs. They begin to manage inflation risk by launching a gigantic set of fiscal initiatives that amount to pumping 50 trillion Chinese yuan into the economy (approx. USD 7 trillion) in 2025 and beyond. This affects, among others: to the strong reflation effect around the world and higher commodity prices.
“A significant part of the spending goes into consumers' pockets through the digital currency e-CNY. Instead of using it to repay debt, it goes directly to the economy. China is also intensively encouraging companies to shorten working hours in order to improve the quality of life. This extends free time, increases consumption, enables the creation of new companies, favors starting families and increasing the birth rate,” Saxo analysts predict.
Scenario 4: A human heart is 3D printed
An unprecedented scientific breakthrough is taking place – printing a fully functional human heart using advanced 3D bioprinting technology. Scientists use high-resolution computed tomography to create a complex digital model that everyone records the smallest detail of the complex structure of the heart. “This model serves as the basis for a state-of-the-art 3D bioprinter that produces layers of human stem cells and biodegradable scaffolding materials to construct a heart with extreme precision,” the forecast reads.
The success of scientists increases expectations towards biotechnology and the 3D printing sector. Currently, this is mainly done by start-ups, although there are also many public offerings in this field. An increase in this type of innovation and investment may revolutionize the healthcare industry, leading to better patient outcomes and significant economic growth.
Scenario 5: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) collapses
The boom in electric cars makes OPEC lose its importance and production limits of many millions of barrels per day become inadequate. Demand is dropping dramatically, especially since 2/3 of crude oil is used to produce gasoline or diesel fuel for passenger cars and trucks.
“Most OPEC members quickly realize that the game is over. As a result of arguments and internal fights, key members leave. This makes OPEC is making history. Former members are maximizing production to secure market share, which is causing a large drop in oil prices,” Saxo predicts.
There is a decline in the price of oil and a boom in airlines, producers of chemicals, paints and tires, as well as shipping and logistics companies. However, the market is quickly finding its footing, and oil prices are stabilizing as higher-cost suppliers, especially in North America, shut down expensive shale oil production.
Scenario 6: People rebel against tech companies over bills
Electricity prices in the United States are going up sharply as major technology companies struggle to secure power supplies for their artificial intelligence data centers. The public is outraged, which is why the local authorities propose imposing high taxes and even fines, on the largest data centers to subsidize lower energy prices for households.
On the other hand, it brings a huge boom in American investments in energy infrastructure. Americans are focused on, among others, on Megapack production by Tesla. These are great energy stores. Long-term U.S. natural gas prices are doubling, contributing significantly to higher inflation expected in the future.
Scenario 7: An insurance giant collapses due to a natural disaster
Climate change brings catastrophic rainfall and storms. They cause damage many times greater than in the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when claims amounted to $40 billion, surprising the insurance industry. Insufficient reserves to cover claims and inadequate reinsurance coverage to mitigate the costs of extreme weather events are causing panic throughout the industry. One of the largest insurers may go bankrupt.
The crisis is deepening, leading to discussions at the government level about whether to rescue the failing company and other weakened companies in the industry to prevent the risk from spreading widely. Berkshire Hathaway shares are risingbecause Warren Buffett's company has enough capital to survive the panic. The company gains market share.
Scenario 8: The British economy recovers after Brexit
Changes to the UK's fiscal policy after the new Labor government announced its budget priorities for 2025 are strengthening the British economy. They avoid those that are most harmful to economic growth income tax increases while reducing the least effective public sector spending to reduce its deficit. The British pound rises to 1.27 against the euro, the level before the Brexit referendum.
“Stimulating domestic investment and more optimistic growth prospects are strengthening the British pound against the unstable euro. This causes the euro/pound exchange rate drops to 0.75, i.e. below the rate of 0.76 on the day before the Brexit vote. The British FTSE 100 records good results, the forecast assumes. Especially since the political turmoil in France and Germany may drag the euro down.