Earthquakes on Santorini. What awaits the island? An expert with two possible scenarios

As noted by the Greek volcanologist George Wugiukalakis, the strongest earthquake in the area of ​​Santorini may have a magnitude of about 6. According to him, even such a shock would not cause serious consequences for the surrounding Cyclical Islands.

– We are not sure how the situation develops, but we take into account the two main scenarios – said the expert.

The first of them assumes that we will witness further magnitude shocks, which will not exceed 5.2-5.4, and therefore as it was before. According to this scenario, there will be no strong earthquake, but shocks can still be felt for some time – up to three weeks. Vibrations would release accumulated seismic energy.

According to the second scenario, a strong earthquake may occur. – According to our estimates, his magnitude would not exceed 6. After this shock, after a maximum of 10-15 days, everything would return to normal – added Wugiukalakis.

The researcher pointed out that the situation is examined on an ongoing basis.

– We are constantly collecting and analyzing data. We are sure that there will not be a very large earthquake. The earthquake stronger than 6.2 or 6.3 is impossible, “said Wugiukalakis. – However, there will probably not be such a large shock. It is possible that in the next two or three weeks there will be somestones with a strength of less than 5.5 – he said.

The probability of strong shocks in the Santorini region was also commented by the Polish researcher, Professor Stanisław Lasocki from the Department of Seismology of the Institute of Geophysics of the Polish Academy of Sciences.

– predicting earthquakes is impossible. However, it is possible to forecast, i.e. inference on changes in the likelihood of earthquakes. In our opinion, looking at how well the preservation of the parameter we developed – assessing the change of probability – correlates with the occurrence of stronger shocks in this swarm so far [serii trzęsień ziemi o niskiej lub umiarkowanej sile, skupionych w określonym regionie i zachodzących w krótkim okresie czasu – przyp. red]we can think that the probability of a strong shock is growing. In my opinion, it can be even above magnitude 5, i.e. shocks referred to as strong – explained the seismologist.

At the same time, he determined the expected date of the possible occurrence of such subsequent shocks.

– It is the scale of two or three days, as long as our parameter continues to show an increase in the likelihood of strong shocks. Until Monday, this is quite real in my opinion. However, nothing is certain – he said.

He noted that scientists from IGF PAN work in an international team, where they implement “a completely new methodology of probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes”.

According to the Greek volcanologist, even a magnitude 6 earthquake will not cause serious consequences for the surrounding islands. The hypocentra shocks are located at a distance of 25-30 kilometers from the islands of iOS, Amorgos, Anafi and Santorini.

When asked if people staying in the Islands are safe, Wugiukalakis emphasized that these people are “in poor condition”, because the shocks are at high frequency, so residents and guests do not sleep night. “This is mainly a psychological problem,” noted the volcanologist. He emphasized that no damage has been recorded so far.