France and the fall of the government. The expert points to Marine Le Pen's strategy

On Thursday at 8 p.m. the president Emmanuel Macron will address the French in an official speech. The speech is a reaction to the decision of the National Assembly vote of no confidence for the government Michela Barniera.

The ruling coalition, made up of liberal and center-right parties, had a minority in parliament – 221 out of 577 votes. He was the axis of disagreement with the opposition budget for 2025 and the cuts planned by Barnier.

– The prime minister's mission was very difficult from the very beginning. I think so until the last moment he hoped for a compromise with so many political forcesto avoid overthrowing the government. Especially that France is in a rather uncomfortable economic situation, with high debt and high deficit. But hopes earlier this week were dashed – Amanda Dziubińska, an analyst for France at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, tells Interia.

France's public finances are a key piece of the political puzzle here. Opposed to the Prime Minister's proposals the left submitted a motion of no confidence in the government. This happened when the Prime Minister used a special constitutional mechanism and tried to force through the Social Welfare Act without a vote in Parliament.

Barnier he also tried to reach an agreement with the nationalist National Union i Marine Le Pen. However, the negotiations ended in failure.

– The Prime Minister realized that what the extreme right is bidding, demanding more and more concessions in budgetary matters, may not be aimed at compromise, only the desire to overthrow the government – comments Dziubińska.

Example? On Saturday, Le Pen suggested in an interview for “Le Tribune”. Barnier will get a chance if he gives in on pensions or drug prices. A day later, she demanded concessions on both issues.

Ultimately, the National Union joined the motion of no confidence. 331 deputies decided to dismiss the government. Shortly after the vote, Mathilde Panot of the party France Untamed she told reporters that would be the solution to the impasse president's resignationbecause the government's failure is actually the failure of Macron's policy.

– The far left has long been demanding that Macron resign. They are disappointed that the president did not give the left a chance to form a government – explains our interlocutor. Macron did not agree to this after the last parliamentary elections in July.

Representatives of other left-wing groups speak in a similar vein: Socialist Party, Ecologists i French Communist Party. – All these parties believe that they are deprived of the opportunity to govern, and after the victory of their bloc in the parliamentary elections, they were entitled to form a government in the first place – Dziubińska points out.

However, he emphasizes that the allies of France the Untamed they are not talking about the president's resignation. The Socialist Party even proposed talks between the groups that formed the Republican Front against the extreme right.

Even if there was an alliance of the center-right, liberals and the left, – as Dziubińska points out – it would be a “temporary solution”.

– In my opinion, there is no other option at the moment another early election in the middle of next year. Any type of agreement, whether with right-wing or left-wing parties, will be based on a common agreement not to support the no-confidence motion. These are quite fragile foundations. No credible government can be built on this, our interlocutor points out.

The president cannot announce early elections earlier than July 2025, i.e., according to French law, at least one year after the last election.

Theoretically, another variant is possible – early presidential elections. However, Macron would have to resign and, as Dziubińska points out, “unlikely scenario“He himself has already announced that he will not step down.

– Early presidential elections will not change the arithmetic in parliament. It will still be difficult to achieve stability in the National Assembly that would allow for a coordinated government policy – adds the PISM analyst.

What is worth noting, Marine Le Pen also does not speak directly about Macron's resignation. – Members of her party suggested it in a slightly more explicit way, but Le Pen herself avoids it, maneuvers around so as not to be accused of an attempt at destabilization – Dziubińska points out.

– I think Le Pen is secretly counting on presidential elections earlier than 2027. But the way the National Assembly functions is somewhat paradoxical. The formation has been trying for at least two years demystify your image as what is anti-systemic and destabilizes the political situation in the country. On these issues, he is trying to redirect attention to the extreme left, the expert adds.

To sum up, France's economic situation is difficult, budget deficit currently estimated at 6.1 percent. GDP, which forced a reaction European Commission and commitment to corrective action.

The issue of the 2025 budget remains open. If the work is not completed on time, the government will most likely ask the Parliament in an extraordinary manner for permission to operate under the budget act for the previous year, which does not alleviate the problem of excessive deficit and will require a budget adjustment at the beginning of next year.

As if that wasn't enough, Paris is struggling with foreign policy problems.

On the day of the no-confidence vote, the nuclear energy company Orano announced that The military junta in Niger took control of a French uranium mine. For France, it is one of the key raw materials because it provides fuel for nuclear power plants, which are the basis of France's energy sector. A week earlier, Chad and Senegal announced the termination of military agreements with France.

Therefore, in the difficult situation of the country, Le Pen is trying to show a responsible attitude, shifting the blame for the political chaos to the left. However, this attitude requires consistency.

– Le Pen would like her party to be perceived as capable of taking power. Even though her ideas and postulates are becoming more and more deeply rooted in French society, the problem of perceiving her as such remains incapable of ruling – emphasizes Amanda Dziubińska.

– The question arises whether by deciding to vote together with the left in the no-confidence motion, thus creating an image of an unstable situation in France, Le Pen has not led to a situation in which some potential voters will claim that she failed to break the spell of the anti-system image, and The National Union needs to intensify the political situationif this situation does not directly favor the interests of the party – points out the PISM analyst.

Will Le Pen's plan succeed? Amanda Dziubińska points out that the situation in France until the next elections will largely depend on the new prime minister. He draws attention to the relatively calm reaction of the stock exchange to the government's dismissal.

– I think this is influenced by public opinion's expectation and signals from various sides that Emmanuel Macron will choose a new prime minister very quickly, which means that the scenario of another political impasse will be eliminated. The second factor in calming the situation are the declarations of a large part of the political parties that regardless of the composition of the new government, they will not seek to overthrow it so as not to cause more confusion on the French political scene – the expert emphasizes in an interview with Interia.

Want to talk to the author? Write to jakub.krzywecki@firma.interia.pl

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