Fuel prices at stations. The latest Reflex and e-petrol

e-petrol.pl analysts for the next week of December for the retail fuel market they provide for further, slight price reductions, with the exception of autogas. They estimate that drivers will pay PLN 5.98-6.09/l for 95-octane gasoline, PLN 6.09-6.20/l for diesel oil and PLN 3.18-3.26/l for autogas.

Experts pointed out that drivers were already paying less for refueling last week, but the relief for their wallets – as they admitted – was not great. They stated that E10 petrol became cheaper by 2 groszy, and diesel oil recorded a reduction of 1 grosz. At the beginning of December, a liter of 95-octane gasoline is valued on average at PLN 6.07, diesel costs PLN 6.18/l. Drivers pay the same for autogas as last week – PLN 3.19/l.

“After the strong increase in refueling costs that we saw at the end of November, the reductions at the beginning of the new month, even if they are symbolic, may please drivers,” they said. Analysts noted that the increase in autogas prices has even slowed down, which, they said, gives hope that “the market is approaching the balance point in the new reality in which there will be no LPG supplies from Russia.” In their opinion, lower fuel prices are due to favorable circumstances on the core markets – mainly the stronger zloty in relation to the US dollar and the stabilization of crude oil prices below the level of USD 75. Experts pointed out that in the wholesale part of the fuel market, discounts prevailed last week and in online quotations of domestic producers, gasoline and diesel oil are cheaper than last Friday. “A cubic meter of 95-octane gasoline (E10) is today on average valued at PLN 4,610.80 and costs PLN 38.20 less than a week ago. At the same time, diesel oil has become cheaper by PLN 78.60 and its current price in the refinery's offer is “average PLN 4,822.40/cubic m.” – analysts said.

According to e-petrol.pl experts, the key event in shaping the mood for the oil market was the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which was to determine the future of the production reduction program by the alliance members. “Currently, they are limiting production by 2.2 million barrels per day, and the +loosening+ of such a limit has been postponed for at least several months. Therefore, the position that the reduction in the level of cuts has been postponed until April 2025 is not particularly surprising.” – they said. “As Reuters wrote, restoring production will involve monthly production increases of 138,000 barrels per day, which is expected to end in September 2026.” – they noticed. Analysts assessing the price outlook for the market noted that this week there was information from the Haynes Boone LLC law firm, according to which banks are preparing for a drop in oil prices below USD 60. per barrel midway through new President-elect Donald Trump's term. “Such a change would take place around 2027, and its explanation would be an increase in production, including from shale deposits in the USA,” they pointed out. They pointed out that in this area, Deloitte's forecasts for the industry assume that the presidency of Donald Trump will contribute to further consolidation of the oil services sector in the US next year. “According to the company, the value of transactions in the oil field services sector in the first nine months of this year reached USD 19.7 billion and was the highest since 2018.” – said e-petrol.pl analysts.

In turn, Refleks analysts point out that the drop in wholesale fuel prices has brought the first reductions at stations. In their opinion, next week the average retail prices of a liter of 95 petrol will be PLN 6.08-6.12, diesel oil PLN 6.16-6.20 and autogas PLN 3.20-3.25.

On Friday, Refleks analysts presented a forecast which shows that in the period December 9-15, average retail prices will be as follows: unleaded 95 gasoline at the level of PLN 6.08-6.12/l, unleaded 98 gasoline at the level of PLN 6.83-6.12/l, PLN 6.88/l, diesel fuel PLN 6.16–6.20/l, and autogas PLN 3.20–3.25/l. As they reported, on December 5, the average price of a liter of unleaded 95 gasoline was PLN 6.12, unleaded 98 – PLN 6.87, diesel – PLN 6.19, and autogas cost PLN 3.21. “Although fuel prices at some stations remained at last week's level, on average throughout the country we pay 2-3 groszy less for petrol and diesel than last week, except for autogas, the prices of which increased on average by 1 grosz/l” – analysts indicated. Refleks data shows that wholesale fuel prices in both Orlen and Aramco have fallen since the end of November this year. from PLN 39 to PLN 82 per 1,000 liters of fuel. Refleks analysts reported that on Friday morning the quotations for the February series of Brent crude oil contracts remained around USD 72. per barrel and this is a level similar to last week.

In their opinion, the highlight of the week on the oil market was the OPEC+ meeting. “On December 5, OPEC+ made it clear that it does not intend to rush to increase production. Voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in which 8 countries participate (Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman) will be maintained until April next year,” they said. They also recalled that the mandatory production cuts for 18 OPEC+ countries, introduced from November 2022, amounting to 3.6 million bbl/d will be valid until the end of 2026. “Additionally, countries not complying with the base production limits in 2024 (Russia, Kazakhstan and Iraq) ) have time to compensate for them with lower production until June 2026 at the latest. – added analysts. The next OPEC+ meeting at the ministerial level – as they reported – is scheduled for May 28, 2025. “OPEC+'s decision was in line with market expectations. It is difficult for OPEC+ to increase production at the current level of oil prices, the growth rate of oil production in non-OPEC+ countries and ahead of the seasonal period the lowest consumption of crude oil, which is usually the first quarter of a given year,” analysts said.