Glapiński with interest rates. “There are currently no reasons”

At the end of 2025 inflation It will be at the same level as now – said Glapiński. He pointed out as the most important inflationary factors Energy prices and economic recovery.

– Inflation remains high, although this is due to factors independent of the NBP. We must pursue a policy that counteracting its consolidation at an elevated level – he said.

He also said that currently all forecasts, including the Polish government, international institutions of independent market analysts are consistent that inflation will continue to significantly exceed the NBP's goal this year. – Therefore, there are currently no reasons for changing interest rates – he emphasized.

He also explained: – In December last year, inflation after excluding food and energy prices, i.e. this base inflation, amounted to 4 percent against 3.6 percent in the middle of last year. Forecasts, which we can formulate and build at the moment, indicate that the base inflation this year is expected to persist throughout the year at a higher level, near 4 percent, and therefore clearly above the many years.

– all domestic institutions such as a government like European Commission abroad predict that this year the sector deficit will not fall below 5.5 percent GDPso he will still be one of the highest in the entire European Union. At the same time it grows quickly public debt In relation to GDP – pointed out Glapiński.

As he calculated, inflation is conquered by a strong increase in energy prices and other regulatory and tax decisions, such as a VAT increase for food, an increase in excise duty for cigarettes and alcohol, and an increase in water and sewage prices.

According to Glapiński, inflation will grow due to the dynamics of food prices and increases in gas distribution tariffs. In the second quarter, the effect of low base will work in the direction of lowering inflation, while in the opposite direction the excise duty increase will be operating.

In the middle of the year, inflation will also be conquered by hanging up the power fee contained in electricity bills. As Glapiński assessed, the return of the fee will translate into an average increase in accounts by 8 %, which in turn will translate into an increase in inflation by 0.4 ppcent. In the fourth quarter, however, inflation may increase again due to the abolition of the maximum electricity price for customers in households.

By assuming the current level of electricity tariffs, the abolition of the maximum price will increase the average bill by 13 %, which will translate into an increase in inflation by 0.7 percentage points. He stipulated that it is not known what the level of tariffs in the second half of the year will be, which is why estimates are based at the current level.

According to the head of the NBP, the Polish economy is in the recovery phase, which is an inflation factor. – In conditions of faster increase in demand, bringing inflation to the target can last longer. (…) wages in the economy are growing very quickly. In the enterprise sector, the annual increase in salaries in recent months still has been shaped near 10 percent (…) rapid wage increase, of course, contributes to a rapid increase in services prices – he said. He added that in December the increase in service prices amounted to 6.6 percent. year on year, which means that base inflation is at a high level all the time.

– In combination with economic recovery, rapid wage increase and loose fiscal policy, this can increase the risk of consolidating significantly increased inflation – said the president of the NBP.

Monetary Policy Council kept the interest rates at an unchanged level. The MPC has recently lowered interest rates in October 2023.

The National Bank of Poland in Wednesday's announcement stated that The main foot of the NBP, reference rate, was maintained at 5.75 percent. The deposit rate is 5.25 percent, lombard rate – 6.25 percent. The reducover rate of the bills of exchange was maintained at 5.8 percent, and the discount rate of the bills of exchange is still 5.85 percent.