When the times are uncertain and the prospects for the future, many people are afraid of their money. Investors often react with the same reflex: they are looking for crisis -resistant investments. And gold retains its value, no matter how high inflation is, and is also safe for currency reforms and resistant to currency exchange rates.
At the beginning of this week (February 10, 2025), one ounce of gold – i.e. 31.1 grams – already cost over 2900 USD. This means that the price of gold has already reached the eighth record level this year. There is a psychologically important level of USD 3000.
London It is the most influential market for the Spot Złota market because it is the seat of the London Bullion Market Association, which has been determining the global since 1919 pricesmarket for gold trade. Other, slightly less important shopping centers are China, India, the Middle East and the United States.
And Trump again
And it is to the US that initially searches for the causes of current growth prices precious metals. Like many other experts, for Frank Schallenberger, an expert on raw materials in Landesbank Baden-Württemberg (LBBW), it is clear who is primarily responsible for it. As the main reason for the rapid increase in the price of gold said, the current customs policy of the United States is certainly. This causes uncertainty on financial markets, therefore gold is again desirable as a “safe haven”.
Carsten Fritsch raw material analyst from Commerzbank shares this view: “The most important reason for a rapid increase in gold price is uncertainty related to customs policy president USA Donald Trump. “As he added for DW,” ordinary influencing factors, such as American dollar and expectations regarding interest rates, did not play a significant role “in the current price increase.
Internet fears
Fears of the global crisis are also fueled by speculation, which are not always true. The forecasts of the American businessman and the author of bestseller Robert Kiyosaki are currently circulating on various internet portals. According to his forecast, which is ten years old, in 2025 one should expect a “mass economic crisis”. He recommends “focusing on the hazeling ensuring self -sufficiency and entrepreneurship”, and above all investing “in gold, silver and bitcoin”.
On the other hand, economists Goldman Sachs point to central banks. Golden trade is usually oriented on key interest rates. In low interest rates, investments in precious metals are therefore particularly profitable. There are also legal conditions such as the German tax system, “which makes investments in physical assets tax -free after twelve months”.
Central banks are looking for gold
There are many pages interested in gold: private individuals who want to keep the security of their assets, institutional investors who no longer generate significant profits and want to park their money in precious metals, as well as national economies. According to the economist, Commerzbank, Fritsch, their central banks could “support price increases through mass shopping of gold”.
Fears about the risk of financial sanctions are usually the reason why central banks buy gold. This also applies to emerging markets. In these countries, there are fears that they will suffer especially because of interference in global trade or will be involved in conflicts between economically powerful countries. According to Goldman Sachs Research, golden shopping in these countries increased significantly as a result of the sanctions after Russia's attack on Ukraine.
Will the price of gold reach USD 3000 in the near future? Frank Schallenberger is convinced: “Now, when we are only about two percent from USD 3000, I think it is quite likely that this sound barrier will also be achieved soon.” In November, Goldman Sachs analysts published a gold price development forecast. They expect that by the end of 2025 it will increase to $ 3,000 per ounce.
End of bull market in sight?
The World Gold Council (WGC), a lobbying organization for the gold mining industry, carefully presents the optimistic picture of the near future. “We assume that central banks will continue to rule in 2025 and that more investors will enter the gold stock funds,” says WGC Louise Street expert for the “Manager” magazine. However, “the weakness of the jewelry market will probably persist, because high gold prices and poor economic growth reduce the purchasing power of consumers.”
And the end of the bull market is already in sight, says Frank Schallenberger. Profits will certainly be realized soon. And “Later in the next year, a rather poor demand for jewelry and a slight decrease in demand for coins and bars, as well as golden purchases by central banks should ensure that gold will fall again” – said DW LBBW expert.
His colleague Carsten Fritsch from Commerzbank also predicts the end of the boom. “This will ensure the demand for gold in China and India”, which will be noticeably slowed down due to a rapid price increase and a record high price level.
Ultimately, “these two countries are in total responsible for a good half of private demand for gold.” In the medium perspective, central banks will play an equally decisive role. “Because interest rate reductions are coming to an end, the price of gold will probably not get further significant support in the near future,” explains Fritsch.
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Author: Dirk Kaufmann study Alexander Jarecka