In the following days, heavy rainfall is expected over southern Europe. According to the latest calculations of the models, in many countries the rain will remain until the end of March, and the downpours may be accompanied by other dangerous phenomena. Local meteorological agencies are preparing for flooding.
The upcoming days can be difficult for the inhabitants of southern Europe.
– Analyzing the currently available synoptic and numerical data, everything indicates that almost until the end of the month in the Balkans and Italy region, the area of reduced pressure with several secondary lowland centers will persist – said the synoptic of tvnmeteo.pl Tomasz Wakszyński.
How long will it pour?
As he explained, these are relatively shallow baric centers with not very reduced pressure in the center, but they make up for moisture. – In this area there is an almost stationary, wavy cool front. Depending on where it is at the moment to wave on this front, there is continuous, periodically intensive rainfall. There are also very good conditions for the development of convection and related rainfall of a different nature, but equally intense – he described.
The wavy front is clearly seen on the maps prepared by European prognostic centers. According to forecasts, the front will persist until Thursday, bringing more intense phenomena in the south of Italy. Their intensity will begin to gradually fall on Friday and Saturday.
A system of wavy fronts over southern Europe. Situation on 25.03.2025DWD
How much rain can fall? Possible flooding
The synoptic explained that the models give various forecasts of rainfall sums, but they are consistent with one – the most rain will fall in the area of southern Italy and western Balkans. According to the ECMWF model, many places will be recorded by values over 100 liters of water per square meter, which may cause a threat depending on local conditions and temporary rainfall distribution in a given place.
Forecast rainfall in the period 25-31.03.2025 for the south of Europe according to ECMWFECMWF
Even more pessimistic calculations were presented by the meteologix.com portal – according to them until Friday at some points on the Apennine Peninsula and the Balkans, the sum of rainfall can approach 200 l/sq m.
Forecast sum of rainfall in the period 25-28.03.2025 for the south of Europe according to the European Swiss HD modelmeteologix.com
Local meteorological agencies are preparing for downpours and possible flooding – in some regions a second degree of warnings applies. Wakszyński added that you should follow subsequent synoptic warnings and analyzes and calculations of numerical models.
Source of the main photo: ECMWF