This week, the Central Statistical Office will provide inflation data for April, the Ministry of Finance will conduct a debt auction, and the government will adopt macroeconomic assumptions for 2025-29 and the first report on the deficit procedure. On Friday, the PMI indicator will appear on Friday.
From Makro data, the key event will be Wednesday's Flash reading inflation for April. A clear CPI decrease to slightly above 4 percent is expected, after all inflation remained at the level of 4.9 percent. Confirmation of a clear disinflag trend would probably be confirmed by the MPC in the belief in the possibility of cutting the feet at the May meeting, in accordance with the numerous announcements of members of this body after the pigeon reimbursement at the beginning of April.
“We expect a significant decrease in basic inflation by 0.6 pp. To 4.3 percent yaws in April. Disinflation in April will be powered by: a) favorable base effects in a food basket 12 months after a VAT increase; b) low oil prices, which will result in a more stronger and more pronounced deflation in transport fuel basket. (…) The decrease in inflation materializes, the implications for monetary policy will be pigeons, “assess economists Goldman Sachs in the announcements of the week.
Santander economists estimate that the very effect of the database related to the reinstatement of VAT on food a year ago in April ordering to expect a decrease in CPI by 0.4-0.5 pp., Assuming a moderate increase in MDM food prices. In turn, the effect of cheaper oil on fuel prices This is another -0.2 pp.
Industry data
On Friday, S&P Global will give the value of the PMI indicator for the Polish industry, which in February and March remained above the expansion limit in the sector, i.e. 50 points. Economists of Santander expect PMI remained minimally above this level in April, although below the March reading of 50.7 points.
“The CSO study showed a deterioration of moods based on the assessment of companies in April that it weakened the stream of orders. In turn, the CSO data with March orders was very strong. The initial PMI for the German industry gently withdrew MDM, but remained much above levels from the end of last year. duties' (accelerated ordering and exaggerated orders to build stocks before the duties come in).
Government plans
The government will accept two important documents on Tuesday: “Long-term macroeconomic assumptions for 2025-2029” and a report on implementation “Medium-term budget and structural plan for 2025-2028”, which results from the embrace of the Polish procedure of excessive deficit (EDP) by the European Commission. The second document may bring an explanation of the surprisingly high forecast of the GG sector deficit in 2025, i.e. 6.3 percent. GDPwhich Poland notified in April to the EC. According to the original estimates, sent to the EC by the government in the autumn of 2024, the sector deficit this year. It was to amount to 5.5 percent.
Ministry of Finance He will carry out on Monday The second bond auction in April. The ministry will offer for sale bonds with a total value of PLN 6-10 billion in series OK0127, WZ0330, PS0730, DS0432, DS1034 and WS0447. The last SPW auction was extremely successful – the Ministry of Finance was placed at the main auction papers for PLN 12 billion at the highest demand since November 2024. PLN 14.4 billion.
On Monday before noon, the Ministry of Family, Labor and Social Policy plans a meeting regarding the summary of the analysis stage of shortening working time And the next steps that can be taken to introduce short working time in Poland.
On the WSE, in addition to tracking subsequent editions of the customs war, investors' attention will be paid to the results of large companies. The quarterly reports will be presented by banks – SAntander, Pekao and mBank, as well as CCC, XTB or Kruk.
Source of the main photo: Adobestock