On Wednesday, a decision of the Monetary Policy Council will be announced on interest rates. According to most economists, the feet will be lowered. The NBP president Adam Glapiński also pointed out a possible reduction in the near future.
The two -day meeting of the Monetary Policy Council began on Tuesday. Currently main NBP interest ratereference rate, is 5.75 percent. The council has been maintaining her at this level since October 2023.
NBP reference footPAP/Michał Czernek
Announcement of interest rate reduction
Although at the last April meeting of the MPC did not change the height of the feet, the president of the National Bank of Poland Adam Glapiński indicated the possibility of lowering them in the near future. At the conference, after the council meeting, he assessed that this could occur both in May and in June, and in July. According to the head of the NBP, it should not be a cycle of reductions, but a one -time adaptation to the lower inflation. According to him, this year, in the optimistic script, there could be two rate discounts, 0.5 percentage points each.
Earlier, for a long time, the president of the NBP argued that Due to increased inflation, there is no space to change interest rates. He pointed out that in the conditions of ongoing economic recovery, rapid wage growth and loose fiscal policy, the MPC must conduct monetary policy to prevent the consolidation of inflation at a higher level.
Adam Glapiński with interest ratesTvn24
As long as interest rates may be reduced
After the April conference of Adam Glapiński, the discussion about the possibility of reduction of interest rates gained pace. There were also a lot of statements of the MPP members who confirmed the market in the belief that the reduction of the feet would actually take place in May.
The closer to the end of April, the more clearly the statements from the MPC were clearly pointed out to the prospect of a lower cost of money since May. This was associated with subsequent Makro data, which confirmed the disinflastic picture of the Polish economy.
The hardest declaration on cutting the feet was made by a member of the Republic of Poland Przemysław Litwiniuk. In his opinion, in May there will be conditions for a reduction of 50 pb., a jeżeli nikt nie zgłosi takiego wniosku, to złoży go on sam. He added that another move of the toes down would be possible in autumn, also by 50 PB.
Analyst Xelion Piotr Kuczyński forecasts a reduction in the reference rate by 25 or 50 PB, although he emphasized – he would prefer that it would be 50 points.
As long as mortgage installments fall
Piotr Kuczyński pointed out that the lower interest rates of the NBP mean smaller loan councils. In his opinion, mortgage loans installments may drop from several dozen to over one hundred zlotys in the case of a loan of 300,000. zloty. He pointed out, however, that this would not happen immediately, only after 3 or 6 months, depending on whether a given loan is associated with a 3-month or 6-month-old Vibor.
The chairman of the Committee on Financing and Real Estate at the Polish Bank Association Jacek Furga pointed out the issue of greater attractiveness of mortgage loans after a reduction of the feet. He calculated that with a reduction of feet by 50 base points, a reduction for the borrower with an average loan worth 500 thousand. PLN, would be over PLN 200.
– This is already measurable money and I think it would be a big encouragement, and each subsequent reduction will make the loan even more attractive – emphasized the expert of ZB
Source of the main photo: Radek Pietruszka/PAP