The second stage was to start on Sunday Weapon suspension in the gauze zone in which Israel And the Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas should officially end the war. Tele However, he refused to start the talks, to which he committed to the January agreement, demanding Extending the first phase of the truce and releasing by Hamas more out of 59 hostages abducted to the enclave on October 7, 2023. In order to put pressure on Hamas, the Jewish state cut off delivery humanitarian aid and threatened to interrupt the flow electricity to a war -made Palestinian territory.
There are many indications that stretching of a weapon suspension By Israel is part of a wider strategy aimed at Maintaining a greater geographical presence – Also in the territory that does not belong to him. On four fronts Israel's defense forces They began to create something like indefinite “buffer zones”. They are currently in the mentioned Gaza Strip, on Western shore of Jordanas well as on the borders with Leban i Syria.
According to the Orientalist Marcin Krzyżanowski This strategy is not in fact new. – if we look at the story Israeli-Palestinian conflictor more precisely Israeli-Arab warswe will see that the result of most clashes was Annexation by Israel of subsequent territories. Occupation of the southern part Libon and areas located in the area Hermon Mountains in Syria It causes Israel to ensure strategic security: it pushes the threat from himself with another terrorist attack – explains the lecturer at the Jagiellonian University and a former diplomat in an interview with Interia.
Changing the strategy of the Israeli army. Maintains presence outside
As our interlocutor emphasizes, the areas that Israel is currently occupying, enable both observation powerful tract of the earth and its firing.
– As the story and analysis of the statements of members of the Israeli government shows us, this presence may take a long time until actual annexation territories by Israel – especially when it comes to areas Syria – emphasizes Krzyżanowski.
It is also another Zadra in Israeli-Arab relations. Arab countries can use the argument of “illegal Israeli presence” to show the Jewish state as a regional aggressor.
Moves Israeli army Three issues are favorable: chaos within the borders of neighbors, trauma after Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023 and pressure from extreme right -wing coalition partners of the prime minister Binjamin Netanyahu. The entire strategic structure is supported by the belief of the Israeli government about boundless support from the US President's administration Donald Trump – She has not yet made any attempts to stop the actions of Tel Aviv.
Middle East. Israeli soldiers in positions in Lebanon and Syria
Let's start with the situation in Lebanon and Syria. On February 18, the deadline expiredaccording to which – by virtue of the concluded weapon suspension agreement – Israeli troops should withdraw from the southern Lebanon. Israel announced that he would keep his deadline, but he would keep control over five strategic placesconstituting observation points the position Located in close proximity from the town on the Israeli side of the border.
According to Tel Aviv, maintaining the presence on five hills Is temporaryresulting from the fact that Beirut He did not complete one of the terms of the contract. According to the agreement in southern Lebanon, there should be no hezbollah forces – supported by Iran of the Shiite Terrorist Organization, which ruled part of the country until last year's war with Israel – and the complete control over this area should take over Lebanese army. Despite this, the Israeli presence on the Lebanese side of the border was recognized as a violation of the contract, which threatens the collapse of the truce.
Israel justifies its activities with the need for protection residents of the north of the countrywho – after months of rocket fire from Hezbollah – are slowly returning to their homes. Tel Aviv claims that the soldiers will leave the posts whenever Lebanese army He will be able to secure the border and deal with the fighters – but it is not clear whether in Israel's opinion it will ever happen.
British media: This is a new risk management strategy
The tense situation also prevails on the border Israel z Syriabetween which there is a suspension of weapons contained in the 70s. The findings were made between Israel and the regime Hafiza al-Asadai.e. the father overthrown by the rebels in December Baszara al-Asada. Then The Israeli army “temporarily” took the buffer zone On the Syrian side Golan hills. Israel explained this move by the lack of recognized forces that could secure the border. Since then, a new government has already been established in Damascus, which still has no control over part of the state.
The Israeli army is also present on Western shore of Jordanwhere 40,000 Palestinian civilians were displaced because of Israeli operations against armed groups. It's about cities Dżenin i Tulkarmbelonging to the so -called Zones A, which the control should be exercised Autonomy Palestyńska. At the end of January, Tel Aviv announced that after the surgery ended, the Israeli forces would remain in the area to ensure that “that the terror would not return”.
According to the British “The Economist”, the Israeli Establishment of security thinks that the country must accept “Another risk management strategy' potential abilities.
Orientalist: The war in the Gaza Zone hangs in the Italian
– Definitely occupation of subsequent areaswith the continuous threat from Hezbollah and very much A unclear situation in Syriawill cause that Israeli forces will simply have to stretch more. However, if they are more stretched in the north of the country, there will be less for use in the south – notes Krzyżanowski, emphasizing that the resumption of the war in Gaza is all the time “hanging in the hair”.
– It is worth emphasizing that there was only a weapon suspension suspension of weaponsnot permanent peace treaty. Hamas is aware that the majority of the ruling Israel coalition demands the resumption of hostilities and prepares for such an eventuality – he adds.
Greater presence Israeli soldiers It is also higher costs, maintaining the current level of mobilization among reservists and the need for further support from the Trump administration, which can be said, but not that it is predictable. The presence of Israeli troops in foreign territory can harm the relations of Tel Aviv with important regional players such as Jordan Whether Egyptas well as with Leban i Syria. Both countries today have new governments that may want to distance themselves from Iran and establish relationships with the West. The occupation of some of their lands by the “American ally in the Middle East” can extinguish this enthusiasm and push the reborn states back into the armed groups.