The Russian plan to occupy further Ukrainian lands presented by the German newspaper “Bild” is consistent with the local offensive operations conducted by Russia – writes the American think tank Institute for War Studies (ISW) in an analysis.
According to information from the daily “Bild” Russia is working on implementing a new medium-term plan of aggression in Ukraine, which once again envisages the conquest of large areas of this country. Russia is counting on a further decline in Western support for Ukraine – as well as on sham negotiations aimed at misleading the world about Russia’s “peaceful intentions.”
The Kremlin has also set specific goals for its army in terms of new conquests in Ukraine, according to intelligence information made available to Bild.
The Russian plan assumes that all Donbassi.e. the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, will be under Russian control by the end of 2024 and the Russians will reach as far as the Oskol River in the Kharkiv oblast.
According to intelligence findings, Moscow also plans to conquer a large part of the Zaporozhye, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts in 2025 and 2026, “if possible including the city of Kharkiv.” “Within 36 months, the entire eastern territories to the left (east – ed.) of the Dnieper are to be conquered,” says “Bild”.
ISW: the plan is consistent with Russian offensive operations
ISW notes that it cannot confirm the newspaper’s reports, but points out that in 2021, the daily provided quite accurate intelligence information about the invasion of Ukraine planned by Russia at that time. Analysts also emphasize that the plan to occupy the Luhansk, Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts by the end of 2024 presented by “Bild” is consistent with the local offensive operations carried out by the Russian military in these regions.
Experts also point out that Russia’s alleged plan to wage war until 2026 fits Russia’s continued preparations for a long war.
ISW writes that in its opinion, a sudden collapse of Western aid to Ukraine would most likely lead, sooner or later, to Ukraine losing the ability to contain Russian troops. As a result, Russian forces could move as far as Ukraine’s western border.
Russian soldiers mil.ru
The think tank also recalls the statement of Kyryl Budanov, head of Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), who said that Russia currently has no plans to wage war in 2025. – It is possible that by the end of 2024 – if nothing changes – they will make a correction. But they have no such plans for now, Budanow said.
ISW also informs about the current situation on the front. It reports that on Friday, Russian troops conducted local offensive operations near Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Marjinka in the east of the country. ISW analysts point out that the Russian army has made some progress in these places.
The analysis also states that, according to Ukrainian and Russian sources, Ukrainian troops attacked Russian-occupied Mariupol on Thursday. Petro Andryushchenko, an advisor to the mayor of Mariupol, who is loyal to Kiev, informed that the target of one of the attacks was the Port Siti shopping center, where Russian troops stored military equipment.
Main photo source: mil.ru