“It's going to rain specifically.” The model shows that a snowstorm is approaching Poland

There has been a sense of stillness in our atmosphere over the last two weeks. Now the pressure is dropping and a weather front is moving over the country. Although it is not very active, it brings with it the first “airing” of Poland. This is an introduction to something bigger.

At this moment, a low-pressure vortex is forming in the Labrador region, which will follow the route leading over the North Atlantic towards Europe. On Monday, November 18, it will reach the British Isles and dive further into the continent. There are many indications that this creation will bring us into the early winter.

In the following days, the center of the low-pressure vortex is expected to move over Germany, Poland and the Baltic Sea towards Finland. It will pass over our country in an arc, bringing heavy rainfall, sleet and snow. The low is expected to move in a great bay of cold, stretching from the Arctic to the Alps and the Carpathians. Poland will also be in the stream of cold air flowing from the north-west. While on Monday and Tuesday the daytime temperature will range from 4 to 8 degrees, in the following days it will drop to around zero.

In the light of the latest recovery from meteorological models, on Wednesday, November 20, the temperature is expected to increase to 1-2 degrees in the north of the country and to 4-5 degrees in the south. On Thursday, after a frosty morning with temperatures ranging from -5 to -1 degrees, it will be cold – a slight increase in maximum temperature to 2-3 degrees at most is possible. The wave of cold pouring into the European continent is clearly visible in the calculations of the American GFS model, and specifically in the forecast of the temperature deviation from the norm on November 20 at an altitude of 1.5 km. The temperature at ground level in Poland is also expected to be lower than usual in the north and west of the country.

However, the low-pressure vortex is expected to bring not only cooling, but also wind, rain and snow. The wind speed accompanying the movement of the system over central Europe is expected to reach 80-90 km/h, and in foothill and mountain regions over 100 km/h. Such strong gusts are possible over the western regions of Poland and the Baltic Sea. The wind is expected to die down around November 22, when the center of the low pressure will be in the Finnish-Russian border area.

The most interesting thing about all this low-pressure confusion is the possible snowfall, because according to the forecasts it is supposed to fall. There will be no light rainfall of granular snow, i.e. small ice balls, which accompanied the high pressure weather in recent days. Fronts with thick clouds are approaching, in which the temperature drops significantly below zero, giving an impulse to the formation of real snowflakes, but also snow crust.

The first wet snowfall is expected to occur on Monday, November 18, and will be associated with a slight wave of cold brought by the Scandinavian low. Only in the afternoon and evening of Tuesday, November 19, the GFS model forecasts a snowstorm entering Poland from the west, i.e. a wide zone of snow and snow with rain. It will become whiter in the west, north and center of the country. These will be precipitation on a warm front, so they will have to turn into rain for a while. On Wednesday, however, with the arrival of the cold front pushed by Arctic air masses, another zone of snowfall and snow crust will enter, of a fleeting nature. The rainfall that occurs from time to time may be heavy at times, which, combined with the strongly blowing west and north-west winds, is expected to bring dangerous snowstorms.

All this chaos with snow and wind will last for two days. Later, however, the cold stays with us, which means that there will be occasional snowfall. First of all, we will feel the cooling in the sharp drop in temperature at night. The minimum temperature during the deepening gulf of cold over Europe is expected to reach -5/-10 degrees in Poland at night. There may be slight frost in the afternoons.