Japan may be in an 'unenviable' situation

As “JT” noted, commitment USA into two wars – an invasion Russia on Ukraine and war Israel with Hamas and Hezbollah – means that Washington's relations with Tokyo are unlikely to change dramatically. “Any drastic change in the trajectory of U.S.-Japan relations is unlikely, at least in the near future,” we read.

Japanese authorities are “better prepared to prevent a shock similar to that of 2016 after Trump's unexpected election victory.” Japan, according to “JT”, has already sent emissaries to the Republican and Democratic camps to “continue to work hard to create strong relations with the incoming US administration.”

According to the daily, Tokyo will be in an “unenviable” situation if Trump takes over as president – Japan has lost a lot with the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, “the most effective 'Trump whisperer'.” Abe, who has died since 2022, took care of relations with the United States during the Republican presidency. Additionally, Japan has had problems forming a government since the October 27 parliamentary elections. As a result, the Liberal Democratic Party, which had been in power for decades, lost most of its seats.

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As the editors write, what kind of people Trump would surround himself with in the White House will also be important for future relations. During the former president's first term, an experienced administration operated. Tokyo was then able to cooperate with her to maintain stable relations. However, since then, many officials have distanced themselves from the Republican candidate. According to “JT”, if the new administration includes “yes-takers”, Donald Trump “will unleash more destructive impulses in Japan and the Indo-Pacific region.”

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A Republican may, among other things: show a “more transactional approach to the alliance” and demand that Japan cover a larger share of the costs of stationing American troops in the archipelago or threaten to withdraw them. This, in turn, will be reflected in the strengthening of Japan's defense, which has gained momentum in recent years with Washington's alliance with Tokyo “stronger than ever” during Biden's term and the increase in the defense budget by Fumio Kishida's cabinet.

“Ultimately, Tokyo will need to think innovatively, shape the rules, pursue proactive diplomacy and demonstrate its ability to be a willing and able partner for the U.S. should Trump win,” JT concludes.

The victory of the Democratic candidate also remains questionable. Although, as we read, the selection of Harris “would probably be less disturbing for Tokyo because she signaled a desire to maintain continuity with Biden's policy on the importance of the two countries' alliance.” The daily emphasizes that although she was a senator for almost four years and a vice president for another four, “her relatively limited experience in the foreign policy arena may raise concerns.” The current geopolitical situation, as “JT” adds – including two wars, growing tension on the Korean Peninsula and actions China – may be a challenge for her.