Nord Stream 2. Declarations of Russia and the USA about cooperation are called questions about the gas pipeline

The statements of readiness for business cooperation from Moscow and Washington make it a question, in which it can be clearly manifested. The only and not very real project is the launch of the Nord Stream gas pipeline – according to the analysis posted on Saturday on the Carnegie Politika portal.

“If, despite everything, a truce between Russia and Ukraine is signed, the question will inevitably arise what will happen in the economic dimension between Russia and the United States,” writes Sergei Wakulenko on the Think Tank Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in the analysis entitled “Gas again. What can Russia interest America?”

According to Wakulenka Russia It has little to offer America today. The analyst reminded, among others reaction Vladimir Putin to the interest of the president Donald Trump Metals of rare lands in Ukraine. Putin immediately gave an interview in which he assured that Russian metals of rare lands are much better than Ukrainian, so Russia also has something to offer the US in this area. In an interview, Putin proposed a joint construction of the dam at Jenisei and next to it another aluminum factory.

“From the moment Putin first mentioned the metals of rare lands, it was clear that this topic was a one -day bubble,” Wakulenko said. The idea of ​​building an aluminum smelter at a new hydroelectric power plant is assumed by a planning horizon of several years and construction for decades, which is unlikely in current circumstances, he explained.

According to the author, the field of economic cooperation possibilities narrowed to Nord Stream gas pipeline 2ultimately immobilized with the action of sabotage in September 2022, the gas pipeline was interested in Stephen Lynch, an investment banker with many years of experience in Russia. Its logic in the case of Nord Stream 2 is this: war will end, Russia has a lot of cheap gas, Germany They need this fuel, the gas pipeline is an ideal transport option – you have to buy it.

“Considering that Nord Stream 2 is covered by American sanctions, Lynch needs a special permission of the US government to start negotiations at all. He submitted for permission at the beginning of 2024. However, as you can think, he only got the green light at the end of the presidency of Joe Biden,” writes Wakulenko. Lynch is a long -term supporter and donor of the Republican Party and it looks like Trump's team is interested in this agreement. Like politicians and businessmen surrounded by the president.

From a technical and energetic point of view, the launch of Nord Stream 2 makes sense. However, there are many “but” political and economic, says Wakulenko.

“If Russia and Ukraine conclude a peace at which German society will be able to look without disgust and shame, the idea of ​​buying Russian gas (…) will be accepted with satisfaction,” he believes. “This will lead to the diversification of supplies and lowering the average gas cost. The question of how decently the Russian-Ukrainian world will look like in the eyes of Germany,” he adds.

What United Statesso far interested in maximizing LNG exports? The Goldman Sachs forecast suggests that in the years 2026–2030, and perhaps later, supply on this market will exceed the demand. Transit revenues from the operation of Nord Stream 2 will be much lower than the lost revenues from the volumes of American gas, which will be replaced by Russian gas on the European market, draws attention to Wakulenko.

Lynch claims that for the United States a project may have a geopolitical significance: all gas export routes from Russia to Europe will be under US control. This means that logic is as follows: “If you can't prevent it, buy it,” says Lynch.

The Nord Stream 2 reconstruction option is unacceptable to Ukraine, deprives it of gas transit through its territory. Lynch offers Ukraine a minority packet of shares in the future company owners Nord Stream 2. It is politically and economically unprofitable for Kiev, he assesses Wakulenko.

Finally, will Russia agree to trade in gas pipeline controlled and served by private American investors? Russia and Gazprom They are currently not able to choose and should not be grimaceous. However, “Moscow has repeatedly shown that the considerations of prestige and status can be more important to her than the financial interests,” adds Wakulenko.

Therefore, a weave of political and economic interests around the economically dubious NS-2 project like a Gordian knot, according to the analyst, reduces the chances of its implementation.