The New York Times, citing the opinions of experts, claims that the deterrence of Russia after the end of the war in Ukraine may require the involvement of as many as 150,000 soldiers and American assistance in the form of protection from the air, intelligence and anti -aircraft defense.
“In the absence of Ukraine membership in NATO, which appears to be unbelievable for many years, the idea of deployment (in this country) of a large number of soldiers from European NATO countries seems to many officials and analysts of bravado” – writes New York Times. These soldiers – as the American daily emphasizes – would be seriously exposed to Russian attacks without American participation in such an operation.
According to the high -ranking European official, which “NYT” refers to, European countries do not have 200,000 soldiers to be distributed in Ukraine, which was mentioned by President Wołodymyr Zelnski, and sending even a much smaller number would absolutely require American support.
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According to “NYT”, European countries – struggling with slow economic growth, insufficient number of soldiers and standing in the face of the need to increase expenses for their own defense – it would be difficult to send at least 40,000 soldiers. “The real deterrent strength” would have much over 100,000 soldiers of such a mission “to be able to carry out regular rotation – said Professor Emeritus from King's College London, Lawrence Freedman.
“Poland understands that it needs US participation”
According to a defense expert from the German Institute of International Affairs and Security, Claudia Mayor and the German Colonel Aldo Kleemann, sending too few soldiers would be just a “bluff that could encourage Russia to study the ground, and NATO countries would not be able to prevent it.”
“That is why Poland, which is adjacent to Ukraine and is deeply involved in its security, so far rejects participation in such a mission,” explains “NYT”. “Poland understands that he needs the US participation in every such mission, so he wants to find out what Trump intends to. He wants to guarantee that there will be American help in the security sphere to support Europeans on the front line,” said the director of German Marshall Fund Alexandra for director De hoop Scheffer.
In her opinion, this is not certain. “Trump will lead to an agreement and will wait for the Nobel Prize, but it will expect Europeans that they will pay and realize them for them,” she assessed. It is also not known – writes “NYT” – whether Russia would agree to the presence of NATO forces in Ukraine or soldiers from countries belonging to the alliance. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already warned that NATO soldiers in Ukraine would be “categorically unacceptable”.
Three models of the international mission in Ukraine
According to Freedmann, there are three possible models of the international mission in Ukraine and all have significant weaknesses.
The peace mission, the purpose of which would be to separate the parties to the conflict from each other, usually works under the aegis of the UN and is in principle slightly armed. But the contact line in Ukraine is about 1300 km and would require a “huge number of soldiers,” said Freedmann.
Ukrainian soldier Mil.gov.ua
A former spokesman for the International OSCE mission who monitored the suspension of weapons in Ukraine before 2022, Michael Bociurkiv estimated that she had suffered fiasco. “The Russians did everything to block this mission. They pretended to be cooperation, limited access and hid all evil actions,” he said.
The second option, referred to as “Tripwire Force”, is the current solution, consisting in stationing small NATO forces in 8 countries of the alliance of Russia closest to Russia. They are not enough to stop the invasion, and they only make sense if the meals will reach in the event of an attack.
The best solution “Jeżozwierza” model
The third type of mission would be the most sensible – deterrent. However, they would have to be very large – up to 150 thousand. Soldiers – and well equipped, as well as have air defense, intelligence and appropriate weapons. Therefore, they would require American help, because Europe still does not have its own military air transport, satellites and anti -aircraft defense.
“However, it is hard to imagine that Russia would agree to such forces for exactly the same reasons why Zełnski wants them,” Freedmann emphasized.
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“The best solution for the near future after a potential suspension of weapons would be something like a model of 'Jeżozwierza': to provide the Ukrainian army, quite weapons, resources and training – including Western forces – to discourage Russia from again – we read.
Source of the main photo: Mil.gov.ua