Let us remind you that the course takes place on Tuesday, October 22 dollar still pointed to PLN 3.9862, while on Wednesday it was announced that for the first time since July the American currency had exceeded the “psychological barrier” of PLN 4. The zloty then began to lose 0.04% against the dollar, and the situation was similar also in the case of euro or pound sterling. We wrote more about this in the article: “Currency rates 23/10. A psychological boundary has broken. The dollar shot up. Gold discounted“.
Autumn loss of zloty. The upcoming elections in the US have an impact on the rates
The October appreciation of the dollar and the concomitant weakening of the Polish currency is to be largely related to the November presidential elections in the United States. As commented for PAP Business Bank Millennium economist Mateusz Sutowicz, the increase in the dollar exchange rate and its gain against the Polish zloty is to be directly linked to the growing probability of Donald Trump winning.
– This is in contrast to expectations of quick and aggressive interest rate cuts by the Fed. The market is partially deleting its assumptions about next year. Additionally, tension and risk aversion are growing due to uncertainty about the results elections, not only presidential onesbut also those to Congress. All this has a negative impact on the zloty – explained the expert. An additional aspect affecting the zloty is the deterioration of the situation in the Middle East.
Economic growth and inflation. Interest rates are set to be cut
As usual we discusseddespite the difficult situation of the Polish zloty, Poland is destined for economic growth in the coming months. GDP is expected to reach above 3.1%. in 2024, and in 2025 – 3.6 percent, thus making our country one of the fastest growing economies in Europe next year. Unfortunately, the optimistic forecasts did not include expectations regarding inflation – it is expected to return to around 5%, becoming the highest in the European Union in 2025.
Considering these forecasts, v March In 2025, the first interest rate cuts since the end of 2023 will finally take place. Interestingly, they are to take place as many as four times – by 25 basis points, between March and September.