Russia announced a new nuclear doctrine and lowering the threshold for the possibility of using nuclear weapons, which, according to experts, is closely related to war in Ukraine and designed to arouse fear and anxiety in the West.”
Signed by Vladimir Putin the amendment provides, among other things, that possible aggression against Russia and its allies by a non-nuclear state but supported by a nuclear state will be treated as their joint attack. Furthermore, the basis for use by Moscow there may be nuclear weapons “critical threat” to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Belarus and Russia.
Russia with a new nuclear doctrine. Response to Biden's move
Putin's move may also be a consequence of his recent decision Joe Biden's.
– Russia has been using nuclear threats since the beginning of the war, and now that Ukraine has been granted permission to use missiles ATACMS deep inside (…) Russia's territory reacts by intensifying these threats – he explains military analyst Mariusz Cielma.
– The signals pointing to war with Ukraine are obvious. The provision (of the doctrine – ed.) stating that if Russia is attacked by a non-nuclear state with the support of a state that possesses nuclear weapons, it will be considered a joint attack, is addressed to Kiev's allies. It also fits into the Russian narrative from the beginning of the aggression that the war is not with Ukraine but with NATO. The Russian media's mention of ballistic missiles is intended to be just that “warning” before agreeing to use ATACMS missiles deep inside Russia, Cielma said.
Russia. With Putin “you never know”
However analyst Dr. Jamie Sheaformer high-ranking official NATOthinks that Vladimir Putin will not decide to use nuclear weaponsat least for now, as he waits to take over as president United States By Donald Trump. – I don't think he will decide to do so because he is waiting for Trump – he said, but clarified that anything can be expected from the Russian leader.
– You never know with Putin. He warned the West the day he invaded Ukraine in February 2022 not to help Ukraine, otherwise he will be exposed to serious Russian reprisals. However, this never happened. Russia so far it has not reacted to any of its red lines being crossed. Tanks, F-16s, long-range artillery, etc. By endorsing a new nuclear doctrine, Putin is telling us that he now has the “nuclear authority” to respond to Ukraine or the West if he chooses to do so. He wants us to take Russia seriously” – explained Shea, former NATO spokesman.
He emphasized that nothing happens automatically and “Putin will decide whether the 'circumstances' require a nuclear response.” He assessed that “brandishing the nuclear option is a good way to scare and intimidate at all costs” in order to stop American military support for Ukraine.
NATO nuclear doctrine to be changed? “We have to follow this lead”
For a decision Vladimir Putin should react NATOwhich, according to Robert Pszczel, a diplomat and negotiator of Poland's accession to NATO should modify its nuclear doctrine.
Pszczel pointed to the need to modernize and modify the doctrine and nuclear “posture” of the alliance itself so that its credibility increases. In his opinion, such modernization of deterrence capabilities should include, among others: expanding the nuclear weapons transportation system, that is programu Nuclear Sharingwhich assumes the possibility of greater participation by Member States that do not have it themselves.
– We need to follow this trail faster, because potentially such a gate has been opened – said the expert, while admitting that there is no enthusiasm on the part of the party in this matter Washingtonwhich is a key element.
Has Putin's regime gone into a loop? The expert points to the weakness of the doctrine
According to him, “Russia defines its potential conditionsin which it could consider the use of nuclear weapons so broadly that virtually any circumstance could be interpreted as a pretext.” – This is the obvious weakness of what they call their nuclear doctrine – if you lower this threshold of weapons use to absurd levelit then becomes paradoxical less reliable – said Pszczel. In his opinion, the goal is clear – to intimidate Ukraine and the countries supporting it.
The expert also quoted the words head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorskiwho recalled on Tuesday that during the Cold War NATO emphasized its doctrine more strongly use of nuclear weapons. Sikorski explained that it resulted from the presumption that Warsaw Pact had an advantage in conventional forces and army size over the North Atlantic Alliance. According to Pszczel, changes in Russia's doctrine prove that nshe somehow admits that she doesn't feel strong enoughto be able to realistically threaten NATO's conventional potential in Europe.
– The conclusion is simple – Russia under Putin, even though it is 2024, is behaving many times more irresponsibly than the Soviet Union – back then, the rhetoric regarding the potential use of these weapons was more restrained, but nevertheless more responsible. This shows how rPutin's economy is gone for a loop – said Pszczel.