The discovery was described in the Chinese scientific letter “Science China Earth Sciences”. Two researchers used satellite data, To estimate what happens with Antarctica ice and how it affects the increase in sea level.
Every year, the glaciers lose part of their mass by melting and evaporation, and thanks to snowfalls – they gain mass. Their mass balance shows whether the mass fell in a given year or whether it arrived (when there was more precipitation than melting).
Sudden change at the pole
With the progress of global insulation of glaciers around the world, they shrink. This is affected by both the higher air temperature and the increase in the water temperature of the ocean. Satellite data described by scientists from China show that in Antarctica this process has accelerated over the past 20 years.
In the years 2002-2010, the Antarctica ice cover lost an average of 73 billion tons of ice. In the next decade (2011-2020) the rate of losing ice almost doubled – to an average of 142 billion tons a year. But in the years 2021-2023 something surprising took place. Ice did not decrease, and on average 107 billion tons a year.
Globally insulation does not go away
What caused the change? According to scientists, this is the result of weather anomalies and extremely high rainfall that led to an increase in the mass of the ice cover. Although this gives a temporary “respite” from a dangerous trend, it does not mean that it has been reversed. Global warming progresses, the average earth temperature increases and you can expect that soon ice will decrease again.
To understand the data well, it's worth looking at it on the chart. It shows the balance of ice cover of various regions of Antarctica. First of all, it shows that the growth in recent years pales compared to how much ice has decreased in the last few decades. Secondly – you can see that he was arrived in the Eastern Antarctica. In the western part of the ice continued to decrease.
The uncertain future of the glaciers
The division of the southern continent into regions is very important from the point of view of the climate and the effects of global warming. The larger Eastern Antarctica has so far been considered a much more stable region, while most ice loss was observed in the west.
Paradoxically, conclusions from the new study are not optimistic from this point of view. Although ice has arrived in the Eastern Antarctica in recent years, the “disturbing instability” of four important glaciers has been detected. In the examined period, there were violent changes, from a stable mass balance or ice accumulation to rapid weight loss.
Although the destabilization of these glaciers is not inevitable, if it happened, the consequences would be catastrophic. They contain enough ice to raise the global sea level by a few meters.
Other new test Propyed in the letter “Nature” from a month ago, it showed slightly more optimistic conclusions. It concerned not the current situation, but historical changes in ice in Western Antarctica. This region is smaller and contains less ice, but loses it at a very fast pace, which increases sea level.
Scientists have examined the 640 m ice core that allowed to look into the past of this region. It turned out that 100,000 years ago, when the climate of the Earth was warmer than today, the ice cover in this region did not completely break down. This may suggest that it is more resistant to an increase in temperature than we thought.
However, the study showed that in a warmer atmosphere of ice there was much less than today. If Antarctica lost him so much, it would still mean an inevitable and large increase in sea level.
Greenland also loses its ice continuously – and at a much faster rate than Antarctica. This is another factor affecting the increase in sea level. To avoid the destabilization of subsequent glaciers, it is necessary to depart from oil, coal and gas as soon as possible, whose combustion is the main reason for climate change.
