The Arctic warms up four times faster than the rest of the world. What can it look like at the end of the century?

The average global temperature in 2024 for the first time in history exceeded the 1.5 degree Celsius limit above the level before the industrial era. The consequences have become really extreme weather phenomena, such as record rainfall and floods in the Sahara, as well as very strong and intense heat waves all over the planet.

More on this topic: “It changes reality throughout the globe”

Researchers from the American Snow and Ice data Center (NSIDC), which is subject to the University of Boulder in Colorado, are afraid that it is only a foretaste. As they said, there is a huge risk that by the end of this century, the average global temperature will reach at least 2.7 degrees C above the average from before industrial times. Such conditions will drastically change, among others, the Arctic.

A new study, whose results were published last week in the scientific journal “Science”, is the result of the work of the international team of scientists, who was managed by Julienne Stroeve from NSIDC.

– The Arctic warms up four times faster than the rest of the planet. With an increase in the average global temperature to the level of 2.7 degrees Celsius, we will witness even more extreme and cascade effects in this region, “said Stroeve.

The starting point for the researchers team was the sixth report of the intergovernmental climate change team (IPCC). Scientists updated the data from the report, focusing on three basic elements of the Arctic environment – sea ice, ice cover of Greenland and eternal cold.

The results were alarming. Researchers said that with the black scenario on the Arctic, practically every day of the year, the air temperature in the world will exceed the values ​​from before the industrial era. Every summer, the Arctic Ocean will be free of ice for several months. Greenland will experience long weeks with a temperature exceeding 0 degrees C. This will make its ice cover melt, and this in turn will contribute to the increase in seas and oceans around the globe. In the case of eternal cold, its area will decrease by half.

“These changes will destroy our infrastructure, ecosystems, sensitive communities and wild nature,” commented Stroeve.

The results of the analyzes show how terrifying changes we can expect if we do not start preventing climate change.

– Our work shows that today humanity has the power to melt entire landscapes from the surface of our planet. It would be great if we could become more aware of this power and responsibility that is associated with it, because the future of the Arctic really lies in our hands – summed up Dirk Notz, a professor at the University of Hamburg, who also took part in the research.