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The forehead of the frosty wave will rush to Poland. The strength of this cold fire can be really great

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A stout frost is coming to Poland. Due to very cold arctic air masses, the temperature can drop to even -15 degrees Celsius. Our synoptic Arlet Unton-Pyziołek writes about the details.

In recent days, the temperature in Poland has fallen at night to -10 degrees Celsius in the east, and on the ground locally to even -15 degrees C. The mass of dry cold continental air flowing from the northeast. On Thursday, along with the influx of milder air from the southwest, there will be temporary “warming”. Cold, however, will come back, this time Arctic.

Cold tongue in Poland

The latest calculations of the American GFS model for five or six days show that the bay of coldness, reaching from the Arctic to the Balkans, will expand. Poland will also be on its way. The cold tongue will develop thanks to the lowlands from the Russian Arctic and Russia itself. The systems will drag very cold air masses to us. The forehead of this frosty wave is to roll to Poland on Friday, and its path will run from north to south. Cold will spill over half of the European continent. The temperature at an altitude of 1.5 kilometers this weekend in our region of Europe is to fall to -15/-18 degrees C. This is important, because when dissolved, similar temperature values ​​can be noted at night at the ground, especially in the east and south of the country.

Cold tongue forecast for Sunday, February 16Gfs/wette3.de

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The strength of this cooling is best seen in the temperature deviation forecasts in a free atmosphere at a height of 1.5 km for the upcoming weekend. The anomaly is to be about 15 degrees in the minus in the area of ​​Poland, Belarus and Ukraine. At the ground, this deviation will not be so strong, but the temperature on Saturday, Sunday, Monday and Tuesday is to be negative not only at night, but also during the day.

Temperature deviation at a height of 1.5 km from the norm to the minus GFS/TROPICALTIBITS

The firepower can be really great

It is not certain as long as the dissolution of the Earth and a strong decrease in the temperature on the ground will last. The mass of arctic air, flowing from the north, has many naval features, can be quite moist, at least initially. So it will bring a lot of clouds and showers of snow. The most abundant ones are to appear earlier, on Thursday and Friday, while moving over Poland of the lowlands max. Later, rainfall should be symbolic. Up to 2-5 centimeters of snow cover in Poland can collect by Monday. Unfortunately, this is not enough to protect the earth from dangerous freezing.

The sum of cumulative snowfall until the evening on Monday, February 17GFS/TROPICALTIBITS

When rolling the zones of greater cloudiness, with only short dissolution, we can expect at night and morning on Saturday and Sunday a temperature drop to around -10/-12 C in the east of the country. However, already on Monday, when there will be more spreads and the mass of cold air will come to us for good, the temperature in the morning can drop to -14/-15 degrees Celsius in Podlasie, Lublin region and in the Podkarpackie Valley. It can be even worse with the ground. Similarly, it should be cold on Tuesday night and morning. The threat of such frost can be seen in the calculations of the European ECMWF meteorological model. The deviation from the temperature standard at a height of two meters in the morning is expected to be in Poland to 10/14 degrees in minus. The strength of this cold can be really large.

Such a frost, staying for many hours, poses a threat to human and animal health. Let's remember this when planning a stay outside the warm room. Let's also remember about pets, which without shelter have no chance of survival.

TEMP deviation forecast on the ground from Sunday to Monday ECMWF/TROPICALTIDBITS

Author/author:Arleta Unton-Pyziołek



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