– we do not want to leave “on ice” those who, due to the high interest rate loans are on border Credit capacity – said the Minister of Development and Technology Krzysztof Paszyk when he announced the new housing program “The key to apartment”. One of its assumption is to facilitate the purchase of a ownership apartment by “people who did not have and do not have their own apartment or house.” Most importantly, it is to apply only to apartments from the secondary market.
“We can't predict the effects.” A strange gate for municipalities
– This is a big surprise, because probably few expected to go in this direction – says Krzysztof Bontal, a credit expert from Proffertto in an interview with Next.gazeta.pl. – It seemed that the emphasis would be on the developer, and here it is theoretically turned off. I say “theoretically” only because some of these measures will go to developers indirectly. Those who sell flats on the secondary market will partly buy another apartment, this is the way of things. However, it must be admitted that it will definitely be a smaller pool than if the developers were financed directly with these funds – he adds.
A square meter limit is also to be introduced. Generally, it is to be 10,000 PLN, but in the case of Warsaw, Gdańsk, Kraków, Poznań and Wrocław, up to 11,000 zloty. – In the five or six of the largest Polish cities, this limit is not high, but if we look at all of Poland, and yet Poland is not only these cities, then it is already We have some field for prices to rise. Some are afraid of this, because if the limits are higher than current market prices, it can lead to growth prices – believes Krzysztof Bontal. He estimates that currently in Warsaw apartments with an area of 40-50 m2, which is located in a limit of PLN 11,000 per m2, there is a trace number.
The announcement of these limits is so strange because Krzysztof Paszyk also said that “municipalities will be able to independently determine the price limit.” Both up and in the bottom. – These are only output limits, and the actual limits are to be determined by municipalities. And here the problem begins, if determining any limit is done with the proviso that they may be completely different, in practice this means complete freedom. There may be a situation where In one place, the program will work on a huge scale, and in others at all, because there will be no apartments that meet the criteria – indicates the problem of a credit expert from Profferto.
This is very weak in my opinion, because if we are not able to predict how many properties will meet the criteria and what the popularity of the program will be, we are not able to predict its effects. After all, it is about real help in buying the first apartment or house – but without the effects we saw with a “safe loan of 2 %”, where many offers disappeared from the market in a short time, causing shortages, especially in the segment of smaller apartments
– he explains.
Great unknown. More questions than answers
Mysterious limits depending on municipalities are just one of many unknowns that are around this program. On the one hand, it was stated that people who want to use the program must meet income criteria, but on the other hand it was not revealed what. At a press conference, it was announced that “the person selling the apartment must have them for at least 5 years” and later in information About the “Key to apartment” program on the Ministry's website, it was written that “the apartment or house must be put into use at least 5 years earlier, and the current owner must have them for at least 3 years”. – These are inaccuracies, but we saw similar situations with a “safe loan of 2 %”. We heard something else at conferences, and something else was in the final regulations – says Krzysztof Bontal.
In a conversation with us, he also calculates the important aspects of this program, which has not been said at all. – We do not know the details, because only general assumptions are given at the conference itself. We have not seen a bill or specific numbers. We don't know the program budget. It is also unknown whether quarterly limits will be introduced to accept applications. In the case of the “Credit for Start” program, this was important for market stabilization, because on average 15,000 applications were provided there. If there are no such limits now, then there may be a sudden price jump again – The expert tells us.
Flippers in fear? Not really. They already have an idea
The mentioned record of the need to have an apartment for 5 or 3 years before selling is to work “anti -dissertation”. “Purchase from developers or so -called flippers will therefore be impossible,” writes the ministry. Meanwhile, it turns out that this is not an insurmountable barrier. – This condition is presented as an anti -philippers mechanism, but after a dozen or so hours there were ways to work around the Internet, e.g. by selling a flat by a real estate agency, without changing the owner, or by carrying out renovation and direct sale, ignoring the transfer of ownership to a flipper. I think that in response to these regulations, many new real estate agencies may arise, which will mediate in such transactions instead of classic flippers – predicts Krzysztof Bontal.
– It should also be remembered that changes are possible in the future. Some are already afraid that for now we are talking about the secondary market, but later there may be amendment to the Act and an extension to the primary market – warns the expert. – For now We have very few specificsand key details remain unknown. We will know the final shape of the program only when we see a ready bill. And as you know, the devil is in the details – he adds.