The most important events in the economy – TVN24 Business

An exceptionally quiet week (according to the planned events) will begin on Monday with the publication of the NBP on the credit policy of banks for Q3. The starting point of the report is a survey conducted among the chairmen of credit committees of several dozen of the largest banks operating on the Polish market. The survey shows changes in credit policy, as well as changes in demand for loans in the Polish banking system. Among other events in the calendar, on the WSE from large companies, the results for Q2 will be published by ING and Pekao banks, as well as CCC.

The Warsaw Stock Exchange, after Friday's 1.5 percent declines led by core markets, has entered a correction zone, i.e. WIG20 has already lost over 10 percent since the peak of the bull market. The behavior of the domestic stock exchange will probably continue to be determined by the mood abroad, which was additionally shaken on Friday by unexpectedly weak data from the labor market USA for July and another disappointing quarterly report from big tech companies, which have so far driven the stock market bull market in the hope of quick monetization of AI-based technologies.

From the technical side, WIG20 broke through the support from above in the area of ​​2,384 points and broke out of consolidation in the zone of 2,600-2,384 points.

“(…) expecting a further decline, it is not worth losing sight of two facts – the declines were built on pressure from the environment, and the WIG20 withdrawal from the peak of the bull market exceeded 10 percent. The first element makes the market dependent on the attitude of the base exchanges, while the second poses a question to players about the sufficient depth of the correction. It should be assumed that the first is more important today, while the second will be the bulls' argument in the scenario of the base markets taking control of the corrective moods,” assesses DM BOŚ analyst Adam Stańczak.

On the domestic FX, where the zloty may strengthen below 4.30/EUR, signals from the American market will also be important interest ratewhere Treasuries yields dropped on Friday, which can also be interpreted in terms of the disparity in Poland-base markets rates and also determine to some extent the behavior of the PLN.

“We believe that a further decline in yields in the US could curb the decline in the EUR/USD exchange rate, which could potentially provide support to currencies in the region. The forint is close to a significant resistance level (around 398-99), the Czech crown has rebounded from it (around 25.5) after a rather “hawkish” cut in rates by 25 bp to 4.50%. In turn, the EUR/PLN could fall slightly below 4.30. The zloty's strengthening could be limited by the continued depreciation on stock exchanges, but an improvement in data on German production or the ISM services index in the US could slightly improve sentiment,” Santander economists say.

The market performance at the very end of the previous week was determined by clearly lower than expected data from the US labor market. The reading of new jobs in the non-farm payroll sector in the US turned out to be the weakest since 2021 (114 thousand), and unemployment rate rose to 4.3% – the highest in 2.5 years. Market movements in response to the data were very sudden and large (drops in Treasuries yields, sell-off on stock exchanges, weakening of the USD), so the question arises about the space for a possible reaction.

“Investors fear that the Fed's delay in lowering interest rates could push the economy to the brink of recession, and thus postpone the vision of a 'soft landing'. For now, however, the data does not indicate a recession, and such far-reaching conclusions based on one week seem exaggerated,” says Tymoteusz Turski, XTB Equity Analyst. “However, this reaction may be reinforced by the shake-up of the second pillar of the bull market, which is still technology companies. This sector has been failing during the current earnings season, and companies are either publishing data in line with forecasts or are disappointing. In the face of heated expectations, this is definitely not enough. The main actors of the technology bull market have accustomed investors to strong upward revisions of forecasts and constant beating of the market consensus. This state of affairs had to end sometime, and although the results of AMD, Meta and Apple indicate that these companies are still able to positively surprise, basing the continuation of the bull market on the shoulders of technology companies is currently under a serious question mark,” he adds.

Among the results of larger companies, the following reports will attract attention in the coming days: Berkshire Hathaway, BionTech, Uber, AirBnB, Caterpillar, Walt Disney, Sony, Novavax, Embraer.

On Monday, data on the economic situation in services for July according to the ISM survey will flow from the US. A month earlier, the index unexpectedly fell by 5 points to 48.8 points, and last week the ISM reading from the industry for July was below expectations. Also on Monday, the final readings of PMI indices for the past month will be given in Europe.

The data package will also draw attention Chin – PMI in services, foreign trade, as well as CPI and PPI. Inflation in China has been just above zero in recent months, and the PPI indicator has remained negative year-on-year since November 2022. Santander economists assess that the upward surprise in the July reading could be interpreted as a sign of improving economic conditions in the Middle Kingdom.

Important data for Polish exporters for June will be released German: on industrial orders (Tuesday) and on exports and industrial production (Wednesday). The market is counting on an improvement in the sector's condition, after weak readings in May.

“May saw an exceptionally high number of public holidays, the negative impact of which on industrial activity has not always been completely filtered out of the data by seasonal adjustment in the past. This suggests that incoming orders and production increased again in June. However, when interpreting these figures, it should be borne in mind that – in contrast to most other years – there was no public holiday in June 2024. This means that the data are distorted upwards and may therefore overstate the underlying trend to the same extent that the May data probably understated the trend,” the Commerzbank economists said.

“If incoming orders and production in June rise less than they fell in May, or if the growth is only slightly stronger than the decline in May, this will not change the fact that the 'hard' data signal continued weakness in the manufacturing sector,” they add. In their opinion, the monthly inflow of new orders in German industry amounted to 1.5 percent in June (May: -1.6 percent), while industrial production rose by 3 percent (May: -2.5 percent).