“The polar vortex will disturb peace in the weather.” The forecasts show a specific frost. When will the snow fall? Weather for winter holidays

The North Atlantic Oscrelation indicator (otherwise Nao; is a phenomenon that occurs in the North Atlantic, and its consequences affect the climate of Europe) in the forecasts of the American national ocean and atmosphere administration (Noaa) after February 15 dives in negative value. We know from experience that this index, extremely sensitive in the winter, by entering negative values, signals the return of cold air masses from the Arctic or from the depths of Russia. In the light of the latest calculations, the cooperation of the Azorski heights and Niżów over the North Atlantic is to weaken, which means the end of zone, western and gentle circulation. It also means the advantage of circulation along the meridians, in the upcoming case exactly from the north and north -east. Thus, in the second half of February and at the turn of February and March, winter may take place. Felt both thermally and rainfall. Snow -heavy snowfall is not excluded temporarily.

In the coming days a lot is going on over the Arctic, which is extremely important to us. The polar vortex deforms heavily, which will disturb the peace in our weather. Instead of being a compact, compact hat of cold above the pole, it stretches above the northern hemisphere like a portion of butter on a sandwich. It disturbs thermal conditions by squeezing over the Pacific in the vicinity of the pole of the great heat of the heat at a height of about 30 kilometers. This affects the conditions by the ground, because it forces cold air masses to drain in a moderate width. Usually, in North America, a spectacular slide is observed, but this time our continent will hurt the ricochet in the second half of February. In forecasts, anomal heat pushes the cold from the Arctic and pushes them over America and Europe. So there will be a cold migration by the ground, the only question is how a strong decrease in temperature should we expect?

A specific frost can be seen in the forecasts for Poland on the second half of February. Winter will be broken from lethargy, although only three weeks left to a meteorological spring, which begins on March 1. We have a valentine's Day into Valentine's Day into a strong cooling phase. Then, from the northeast, cold air mass is to proceed in our direction, which will gradually spill over Europe. Around February 18-19, the picturesque tongue is drawn in forecasts, reaching from the depths of Russia to the French azure coast. In Poland, this will affect at a temperature by the ground, which is to stay in the afternoons from February 16, usually below 0 degrees C in the majority of the country. Around February 20, the temperature at night is to fall below -10 degrees C. Later, drops to -15 degrees Celsius are possible, although the sack with frost may open even more broadly.

The strong sinus of cold is to expand for a week, at least in the light of the latest model calculations. However, the situation is not so obvious. The first wave of cold is to be brought by cloudy lowlands sliding from the Arctic into our region of Europe. But they are to develop after Russia. While the lowlands are flying chip, carrying a lot of confusion, the highs do not give way quickly, especially at the end of winter, when the eastern areas of Europe are heavily chilled. They are conducive to the maintenance of cold air masses by the ground and the duration of a dry frosty boom. And here we return to the old history: a dispute over hegemony in the heart of Europe between the Alliance of a warm Atlantic with the Niegoma and Cold Asia. The American GFS model assumes that the Atlantic Ocean will strongly fight for the weather, but the Russian highlands visible in forecasts by strong pressure deviation with a value above 1049 hectopascals over eastern Europe will not be easily disappearing. And here the situation may develop will not think about American calculations. It was the last decade of February and the beginnings of March that they were treacherous and very cold in the weather.

Importantly, diving from the north will bring snowfall, which we have a lot of unsatisfaction. In the second half of February, he is to get away from Russia to France and Italy. In Poland, we can expect to create a significant snow cover in the north of the country, especially in Pomerania up to 5-10 centimeters, and in the foothill and mountainous areas to 20-40 cm. In the remaining area of ​​the country it would be on average to 1-3 cm. Estimates for the period from 20 to 24 February are promising.

Due to the high variability of all weather components, the forecasts may of course change. But for some time the cold rafting visible in the calculations of the models in the second half of February allows you to forecast the return of winter. The persistent inheritance trend of the temperature and index of North Atlantic Oscilation allow her return. We keep our finger on the pulse, because the strength of the upcoming cooling is not entirely sure. The script can be both mild and very harsh.