In August, daily shopping in… stores prices increased by an average of 4.3%. year to year (compared to 3.9% in July, 3.1% in June, 2.9% in May and 2.9% in April). However, analysts' preliminary estimates from almost the entire September indicate that the increase this month may be even greater than in August (even 4.5% year-on-year) – according to the latest report “Index prices in retail stores” by the analytical and research platform UCE Research and the WSB Merito University.
Is it expensive in stores? It will be even more expensive
In August, out of 17 monitored categories, 16 went up in price over the year and one went down in price. However, in the previous three months, 13 segments recorded price increases each time, and 4 continued to decline. The authors of the report initially estimate that a similar situation may also persist in September and October. In their opinion, the closer it is to Christmas, the worse it may be.
“I believe that the tendency to accelerate the dynamics of price growth will deepen, as evidenced by the growing number of categories with positive results. However, everyday purchases in the coming months are unlikely to increase in double-digit prices, although they may approach this level. This will be influenced by the recent extreme weather conditions, unfavorable agriculture and crops, increasing burdens related to the requirements for environmental protection and the circular economy, but above all, rising wages and production costs,” commented Dr. Anna Motylska-Kuźma from the University of Lower Silesia DSW in Wrocław.
“Salaries are rising, but in many cases they have not kept pace with price increases.”
However, in the opinion of Robert Orpych from the WSB Merito University, an upward trend in price formation in Polish stores is inevitable, but the jumps will be at a relatively low level. “The jumps will be at a relatively low level. However, this is not optimistic news, because we are talking about product categories that cannot be excluded from the shopping basket. Although salaries are also rising, in many cases they have not kept up with the price increases in recent years.” – he added.
The reason for the increasing price growth dynamics is the end of the anti-inflation shield for energy and the related increase in the costs of running a business. “Unfortunately, the prospects are such that the price growth rate will accelerate significantly in the near future. The situation should stabilize only next year,” noted Artur Fiks from the WSB Merit University. Let us remind you that according to the NBP projection from July this year. inflation in 2025 is expected to be 5.2%, and in 2026 it is expected to drop to 2.7%.
On April 1, 2024, 5 percent was restored. VAT rate on selected food products. According to Anna Motylska-Kuźma, the price war between retail chains mitigated the effects of unfreezing the VAT rate. “Instead of raising prices immediately, retail chains did it gradually. In my opinion, the August increase already includes 5% VAT. However, this is not the end of the increases,” the expert warned.