About ETS 2 can be heard in the media, on political protests and rallies – especially as part of the election campaign. With the approaching date of the new fee, new forecasts appear as to the possible costs of households.
The new edition of the EU emission allowance system (ETS) was adopted by the EU in 2023 during PiS rule. The ETS system functioning for over 20 years includes large greenhouse gas issuers, such as power plants on coal. Their owners must buy the right for every ton of carbon dioxide they emit. The new system, called ETS 2, will directly cover consumers: applies to fossil fuels used in cars and for heating buildings. On the one hand, the fee is to make the use of fossil fuels less profitable, on the other – through funds from permissions – to support the transformation.
Money from the ETS system goes to EU countries. These should spend at least some of them on energy transformation, but in the case of Poland they were almost entirely “burned” in the budget, and not directed to lowering emissions. As part of the ETS, part of the funds will go to the Social Climate Fund. The money from it will have to be allocated to support households most affected by the increase in energy costs and reduction of emissions.
The government negotiates on ETS 2
Representatives of the ruling coalition already last year announced that Poland will try to negotiate changes in the new ETS system. However, the task is difficult.
As we learn at the Ministry of the Climate, talks on this subject are constantly going on, but the problem remains to build a coalition of countries that would pass the changes. First of all – emissions trading is quite a popular tool, supported by through the largest faction in the European Parliament. Secondly – most countries look at ETS 2 rather from the perspective of revenues it will bring. Poland is in a fairly unique situation, because the fee will charge some citizens more than in most EU countries. Carbon heating costs will increase the most, and this is something that is not done on a larger scale practically anywhere outside of Poland.
There are two options on the negotiations table run by Warsaw. One of them is the delay in the entry of the ETS 2 system, probably by several years. This would give more time to adapt, among others by replacing coal furnaces with other heat sources. But it also has a political dimension – in 2027, when ETS 2 would start working, parliamentary elections will take place and the rulers are afraid of receiving a new fee.
The second option is to determine the so -called “price corridor”, i.e. a rigid limit above which the price of ETS 2 may not grow in a given period. This would ensure that the costs will not shoot after several years of fees. As we hear in the climate ministry, such a change seems more likely, because in this case the influence of ETS 2, which EU countries count on, will not disappear.
Poland hoped that the presidency of the EU in this year would give the opportunity to take this topic. However, now the attention focused primarily on proposals for deregulation and industry support. It is not known, therefore, when the topic will formally be taken up or whether Poland will be able to build a coalition of countries supporting changes in the ETS.
ETS is not so terrible?
What if you can't make changes? First of all, Poland must deal with the implementation of the provisions on the ETS 2. Because we are already late and – as the ministry itself admits in interpellation – The European Commission has initiated a violation procedure against Poland for delay and we are threatened with punishment.
Secondly, we must develop a social climate plan, which will be the basis for spending money from the ETS 2 – up to PLN 50 billion by 2032 – and is to reduce loads for less wealthy. Although the plan is to be effective from next year, it has still not been completed. In October, Jan Szyszko, deputy minister of funds and regional policy (this ministry coordinates the creation of a document), assured that “the Polish plan is at the most advanced stage in Europe.”
If you fail to delay or reduce system costs, then the government has other tools to make the ETS 2 not to be severe for citizens – believes Wojciech Szymalski from the Institute for Ekorozwoju.
– fuels are burdened with various types taxes. We have VAT, we have a fuel fee. And if the government decides that the fee resulting from ETS 2 struck too much at the citizens, it has the field to reduce these burdens – he said in an interview with Gazeta.pl. The fee would raise pricesę gasoline by about 50 groszy per liter, meanwhile over PLN 1 in each liter of fuel is VAT, and another 20 groszy – fuel fee.
– Poland has one of the highest VAT rates in the European Union. The minimum set by the European Commission is 15 percent, with us it is 23 percent. Szymalski pointed out. He added, if the government decided to “cushion” the cost of ETS by changing tax rates, then the fuel price would not grow more than it happens as part of normal price fluctuations. Another possibility is to reduce other tax burdens in such a way that even if we pay more for fuel and fuel, ultimately we will not have less in the wallet.
However, such changes can be reluctant Ministry of Finance. Because VAT revenues have a budget, and some of the receipts from the ETS must be allocated to the Social Climate Fund. The government is also looking for money – even for growing arms investments – so it is difficult to expect that it will be favorably approaching tax reduction.
– It should be remembered that moving away from fossil fuels is long -term beneficial for us and our economy. In this way, we become independent of Moscow, we stop spending money on import, because, unlike Russia or the USA, Europe is an importer of fossil fuels. We have already used most of what was with us and we will either build alternatives, or we will pay other billions – emphasized Szymalski
How much will we pay as part of ETS 2?
Some publications on ETS 2 are said about amounts of 10,000. PLN per household. This is a significant exaggeration – at least if we are talking about the first years of the system. In a slightly further future, the amount of loads will depend on several factors. Two aspects are key: the price of permissions and how many fossil fuels we use.
By 2029, the so -called “soft” price limit of 45 euros per ton will apply. Permissions are a market tool, and their number is limited – this means that the price may increase. If it was above 45 euros, it will be possible to launch a pool of free permissions, which will break the price. 45 euros would mean about PLN 450 per ton of hard coal, about 40 gr/m3 of natural gas, about 30 gr/liter LPG, about 50 gr/liter of gas and diesel.
After 2029, prices will rise. How much? Forecasts They are very different: from about 70 euros per ton, for just over 100, to even over 200 euros in the early 1930s.
According to last year's report Wanda Buk, former vice president of PGE, and economist Marcin Izdebski, the costs of ETS for an average family can range from about 1000 to 3000 PLN per year in 2027-2029 (higher costs for heating coal, lower – gas). But in the mid-1930s it could be 5-7 thousand. zloty. In the 1940s, heating coal would pay up to several thousand zlotys a year, but then there should be no coal stoves in Poland (according to the strategy adopted by PiS).
Wojciech Szymalski from the Institute for Eco -development believes that such forecasts focus on the “black scenario” of price increases, which may – but does not have to – realize.
In addition to the price of permissions, the most important element is energy consumption from fossil fuels. A family who lives in an uninspired building and heats it with coal (and thus consumes a lot of energy from the most emission fuel), can bear the costs of several thousand zlotys a year in the mid -30s. On the other hand, if the house is insulated and the carbon stove changed to a heat pump or boiler for pellets, ETS 2 costs from heating will fall to zero. That is why the support of such renovations is crucial, and the funds from ETS 2 can be used.