After more accurate observations, the risk of the 2024 YR4 asteroid collision with Earth in 2032 increased. Experts, however, assured that there were no reason to worry. Determining whether we are really on a collision course, because it is a complex process, and the probability of collision will change many times.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered at the end of December 2024 as part of the Atlas (Asteroid Terrestial-Iimpact Last Alert System) program, detecting planetoids Potentially threatening lands. According to the first calculations, there was a 1.2 % probability that in December 2032 the facility would collide with our planet.
To verify this threat, scientists carried out further observations of the facility. Based on new data, it was determined that the risk of collision is currently 2.3 percent. With the current state of knowledge, this means a 97.7 % probability that there will be no collision.
Observation problems
As explained in an interview with Space.com David Rankin, which took part in the discovery of 2024 YR4, such changes are typical of the threat assessment procedure. Repeated observations are necessary to thoroughly learn the orbit of the asteroids, and the changing probability is a reflection of this process.
– It is easy for us to assess the plane in which the asteroid orbits, but we do not know exactly where it will be on this plane – said Rankin. – Let's imagine that we are holding a stick with a length of several centimeters. If we move it slightly, we will not notice the movement at its end. If we imagine that the stick has many million kilometers long, the same movement will cause dramatic changes.
As explained by the expert, measuring uncertainty may result from various factors, for example related to small errors in the position of the object position or time shifts during observation. “It is not possible to obtain an ideal measurement of the asteroid from any telescope,” he emphasized.
“Large observes will cope”
Adam Hurcewicz from the blog “About space and astronautics” explained that observations 2024 YR4 are becoming more and more difficult. “The asteroid now has about +23 magicians and is weakening. These are the last days for its astrometric observations and position measurements,” he said. The next chance for a more accurate look at the cosmic rock will fall at 2028.
“It will not be a big close -up, but calmly, large observatories will cope. When we observe it, we will find out whether it will hit us or not” – he added. In the meantime, scientists will look for an object in archival photos – all additional data will facilitate the assessment of risk.
Space.com, About space and astronautics – Adam Hurcewicz, tvnmeteo.pl
Source of the main photo: Shutterstock