The risk of asteroid collision 2024 YR4 with Earth increased. “It's a historical event”

The probability that the 2024 YR4 asteroid will hit the ground in 2032 is currently 3.1 percent – the American Space Agency said on Tuesday NASA. According to experts, 2024 YR4 is the most dangerous space rock for Earth that has been discovered today.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered at the end of December 2024 as part of the Atlas (Asteroid Terrestial-Iimpact Last Alert System) program, detecting planetoids Potentially threatening lands.

The first calculations showed that there was a 1.2 % probability that in December 2032 the object would collide with the ground. Later, scientists conducted further observations and it resulted from them that the risk is 2.3 percent. Once again, the data was updated and according to them the probability of collision increased to 3.1 percent.

Although the likelihood of hitting the earth has increased, experts believe that there is no reason to worry. The world astronomical community carefully monitors the situation, and James Webb's space telescope is to carry out a thorough analysis of the 2024 YR4 object next month.

“I don't panic,” he said in an interview with the AFP Bruce Betts agency, the main scientist of the Non Profit Planetary Society. “When you see that the percentages are growing, he doesn't feel peace,” he added. According to Betts, the probability must first increase before it falls to zero.

According to astronomers, the risk of asteroid collision with our planet is small, and even if it happened, the effects would be local. The situation is so serious that it is dealt with by experts who, among others They are constantly working on the most accurate calculation of the risk of a possible impact on the earth and its effects. The observations so far have allowed to determine the asteroid orbit with high accuracy, but to estimate potential damage you need a thorough calculation of sizes. Current estimates based on observations in visible light speak of a diameter of 40-90 meters, and this is too low accuracy. The thing is that the larger the asteroid, the brighter it is, but at the same time this brightness depends on how strong its surface reflects sunlight. Experts from the Planetary Defense Office of the European Space Agency intend to use James Webb's space telescope (JWST), which reacts to infrared light that allows you to determine the size of the object much more precisely. At the same time, the telescope will be able to track the asteroid position, which is to disappear from the view of ground instruments for a long time. The total measurement time is to cover four hours of telescope work. Observations with the help of a space telescope will start at the beginning of March, when the asteroid is best visible from the Webba position. The second round is planned for May.

Bruce Betts believes that the data from JWST will be crucial for a better understanding of the asteroid trajectory. “Webb is able to see things that are very, very blurred,” he said.

According to Richard Moissl, head of the planetary defense office of the European Space Agency, exceeding the probability of 2.8 percent. This is a “historical event”. “This is a very, very rare event,” he said in an interview with the AFP agency. – This is not a dinosaur killer, he is also not a planet's killer. This is at most dangerous for the city – he reassured.

If the asteroid enters the earthly atmosphere, the most likely scenario is an explosion in the air, which means that it explods with a force over 500 times greater than a bomb in Hiroshima – experts report. The potential impact corridor includes East Pacific, North South America, Atlantic, Africa, Arabian Peninsula and South Asia.