After Thursday's statement by the President of NBP Adam Glapiński, that it is doubtful that in June there would be further reductions in interest rates, the Polish currency strengthened. “President Adam Glapiński hit Jastrzębie Tony today, emphasizing the risk of inflation growth harder,” Economists of Pekao said.
At Thursday's speech, NBP President Adam Glapiński announced that it is doubtful that the Monetary Policy Council would reduce interest rates in June. He informed the position of the majority of the MPP indicates that Autumn is crucial for the feet.
Glapiński also said that adaptation of interest rates does not mean the beginning of the cycle and nothing is decided. He also assessed that from the statements of the MPP members it can be brought that if the council decided to further lower their feet, whether in July or in autumn, most would be behind the cycle.
In his opinion, everything indicates that inflation It has already passed its peak, although it is still increased. The fight for a permanent reduction in CPI has not been completed, there is uncertainty, among others concerning energy prices. He estimated that base inflation is still persistent and too high, and that loose fiscal policy remains the main pro -inflationary factor.
The President of the National Bank of Poland also announced that the case of mandatory reserves will be discussed at the next MPP meeting. In June, the width of the feet corridor can also be discussed.
“Jastrzębia” Conference of Glapiński
Economists assessed the Thursday's statement of the President of the NBP as Jastrzębia.
“President Adam Glapiński hit Jastrzębie Tony today: accents more than a month ago were on the risk of inflation, yesterday's rate reduction was (so far), a one -time adaptation, subsequent cuts in July or autumn. Our forecast (-100 pb. In total this year) remains unchanged” – wrote on platform x economists Pekao.
“Market valuations from before the meeting (-200 PB. This year) look absurd – this is not the reversal of the game from 2021-22. The MPC once again shows that it can stop when he wants, regardless of market pressure” – they added.
“The statement of President Glapiński sounds as if the RPP has served 'Jastrzębia's reduction'. The script for the reductions of the feet sorted in April seemed to be more pigeons. Currently June maybe 25 pb. (But rather not), and probably only July or autumn,” economists of mBank wrote on platform x.
According to ING Bank Śląski economists, the next foot reduction will probably take place in July.
“President of President Glapiński was part of our monetary scenario. Pause in June and the transition to a cycle of rates of rates of 25 pb. The nearest reduction probably in July, after the inflationary projection, and the next in the autumn. The market expected and valued too much, too fast” – wrote on platform X economists of ING Bank Śląski.
Economists of PKO BP upheld their forecast that this year there will be two more discounts of 25 PB. – in the summer (July) and in autumn (November).
Golder stronger after the NBP conference
After the statement of the President of the National Bank of Poland, EUR course/PLN dived and fell by about 1.5 groszy in a few minutes. USD/PLN just before Glapiński's speech was in the area of reference level, and after the start of the conference he fell about 1 gr.
The Monetary Policy Council at the meeting on May 6-7, 2025 reduced all NBP interest rates by 50 pb., including reference to 5.25 percent The decision was in line with market expectations.
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