The Monetary Policy Council did not change the level of interest rates. Therefore, the main interest rate is still 5.75%. and has remained at this level for over a year, precisely since October 2023. Nobody expected a reduction now – although expectations for such a move in the first part of next year are growing.
Interest rates unchanged. But that's not all
When making decisions this time, the Monetary Policy Council had at its disposal the latest inflation projection prepared by a team of NBP analysts. The Council receives such a document three times a year: v Marchin July and November.
We will learn the details of the November screening only on Friday – the publication is scheduled for 12:00. However, the main information should be published today, in a more extensive announcement after the Council meeting, which will appear at 4:00 p.m.
The Monetary Policy Council still has too few arguments for cutting rates, especially since the issue is still being weighed prices energy. These may increase significantly at the beginning of next year, driving up inflation – unless the government decides to maintain some form of protection against higher prices for households. For now, the formally applicable scenario is the unfreezing of prices, although verbally there are various comments from various government-related parties. All this will be known during the next projection, in March, so experts expect the first discussions on cuts only after that date (this is also what the president of the National Bank of Poland recently said). Adam Glapiński).
Not only NBP. The most important central bank in the world will also decide on the rates
Analysts, economists and market observers are now waiting for tomorrow's (Thursday) press conference of the President of the National Central Bank, Adam Glapiński. It will start at 3:00 p.m.
This week is full of central bank decisions. Attention will turn primarily to the US Fed. The United States has not yet finished the elections – we are still waiting for the official results – so interest rates in the US will be in the shadow of this event. Nevertheless, this is a decision closely monitored by financial markets around the world (and central bankers too). The main rate is expected to be reduced by 25 basis points, from the range of 4.75-5.00%. to 4.50-4.75 percent Fed's decision on Thursday at 8 p.m. Polish timeand half an hour later a press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Also on Thursday, decisions on rates will be made by the Bank of England, the Czech CNB and the Swedish Riksbank – in both cases a cut of 25 basis points is expected, and the Norwegian Norges Bank, which, according to average expectations, will not change the rate level.