The European Union largely agrees: Russia should be subject to sanctions and Ukraine should receive support. In practice, however, it looks different. As the tagesschau.de website points out, Germany built LNG terminals for liquefied natural gas in record time and became independent from Russia. Poland has already done the same thing.
Belgians, French, Spanish…
But not all EU countries operate this way. Russian gas carriers regularly call, for example, at the port of Zeebrugge in Belgium. Compared to the first half of 2022 – when the war in Ukraine broke out – Belgium purchased a good 50 percent more natural gas from Russia in the same period of 2024 than before the war. France saw an increase of nine percent and Spain an increase of 55 percent. According to the KPLER industry website, some of this import is based on pre-war contracts. Those who do not buy gas will have to pay a contractual penalty. At least until the EU decides on a general import ban and a real embargo.
Russia tempts
At the same time, Russia tempts with lower prices and has increased its LNG export capacity. The portal tagesschau.de quotes Georg Zachmann from the Brussels think tank Bruegel. In his opinion, until there is a real boycott of gas from Russia, many customers will buy gas there – including European customers.
Ukraine still operates pipelines for Russians
As the website tagesschau.de points out, Russian gas still flows – through Ukraine – through pipelines to Austria, Slovakia, Hungary and neighboring countries. In 2018, Austria signed a contract with the Russian company Gazprom, which is valid until 2040. Partially state-owned Austrian energy company OMV would have to pay for the gas even if it no longer bought it.
Hungary even concluded new contracts with Gazprom this spring: The pipelines running through Ukraine have not been damaged by the military so far, and Ukraine is fulfilling its contract with Gazprom. Probably also at the request of the EU. However, this contract expires next year, and President Zelensky has already announced that it will not be extended.
Five percent of total natural gas consumption in the EU still flows through Ukrainian pipelines. According to Georg Zachmann, quoted by tagesschau.de, this amount could be replaced within a few months by supplies from other regions – including LNG from Qatar or the USA. This would result in only a moderate surcharge. However, it would be a challenge to transport gas from ports in the Atlantic and Mediterranean to landlocked countries using existing gas pipelines.
Little chance of an embargo
Nobody knows the exact prices of all gas trade contracts concluded with Russia. Even with the deliberately very low market value of natural gas, last year alone Russia earned at least EUR 12.5 billion on gas imports from the EU. This money added to Putin's war coffers. However, the chances for an effective embargo are slim, concludes the portal tagesschau.de.