Ukraine Attacks Russia. Will Vladimir Putin Make an Unpopular Decision?

“The growing shortage of soldiers to fight in Ukraine it inclines Russia do increasing gratification for recruitsto avoid unpopular mobilization. So far, there are no signs that this will have any effect,” the agency writes.

According to Bloomberg, the army is not gaining enough new soldiers to compensate for losses on the front, which are now the highest since the start of the full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022.

Let us recall that currently Russia he's fighting on two fronts, so to speakOn the one hand, it continues offensive operations in Donbas. On the other hand, it must face the enemy's attack on the border regions: Kursk, Belgorod and Voronezh.

A person familiar with the situation told Bloomberg that regional officials are completing, on average, only less than 2/3 of the recruitment target.

Two sources told the agency that Russia may consider another mobilization in this regard. According to one of them, it could be presented as a rotation to relieve soldiers fighting on the front. According to another, a new recruitment could be announced at the end of this year.

Russia's inability to repel the Ukrainian offensive that has been ongoing since August 6 has been exposed lack of reserves in the Russian army – writes Bloomberg.

“Moscow has hundreds of thousands of soldiers on the front in eastern and southern Ukraine, where they are suffering increasing losses, although the front line doesn't really move. President Vladimir Putin ordered the mobilization of 300,000 reservists in September 2022, prompting increased concern about the war among Russians and an exodus of a million people from the country. Not wanting to repeat the experience, The Kremlin focuses on appeals for patriotism and offers of moneyto attract 30,000 new soldiers each month, necessary to replace losses,” we read.

For this reason, as Bloomberg points out, the Kremlin has radically increased the salaries of recruits from the federal and regional authorities. The pressure is so great that the richer regions attract men from poorer regions higher rewards.

“The scale of Russian losses and the insufficient level of their replacement make it increasingly difficult to maintain the current strategy of slowly developing further gains in Ukraine (…). There are no more talks about conquering Kiev and other cities, because Russia lacks soldiers,” the agency writes, citing a person familiar with the situation.

In July, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin promised 1.9 million rubles ($22,000) to volunteers who sign military contracts, in addition to 600,000 rubles ($6,556) annually paid in monthly installments by city authorities and bonuses offered by the Defense Ministry.

In total, according to the Moscow mayor, new recruits can receive 5.2 million rubles (about $57,000) in their first year of service if they survive. This is roughly three times the average salary in Moscow.

Putin also ordered the government to double the federal bonus paid to new recruits to 400,000 rubles (about $4,370) and called on the regions to allocate the same amounts. Some regions are turning to Moscow for subsidies because they are unable to cope, an official familiar with the situation said.

According to Bloomberg economist Alex Isakov, Putin needs “around 500,000 people over the next 12 months to replace personnel losses and rotate troops in Ukraine.”

In his opinion, Russia's current recruitment strategy of paying volunteers high wages is not enough and the government will have to start focusing on the draft.

Russian authorities do not disclose the amount of their losses in Ukraine. Western estimates suggest that Russia may have lost as many as 500,000 soldiers in the war. According to the British Ministry of Defence, the last three months have brought the greatest losses to Russia – in May, an average of 1,262 Russian soldiers died per day.

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