Donald Trump is practically already the host of the White House. His victory in the US presidential elections will also have an impact on the global economy. What can await us in the coming years?
Economist on Donald Trump's victory: It could disrupt the global economy
– What Donald Trump is planning in the country is not a reason to worry. The biggest questions concern the global economy. In fact, he is an opponent of free trade and globalization – comments economist prof. Witold Orłowski. In his opinion, Trump is a supporter of the strong side, i.e. in this case the United States, taking advantage of “creating conditions to suit the United States.”
This could, of course, be very disruptive to the global economy. Trade wars may break out, including with the European Union. Everyone will lose, especially Poland
– adds prof. Orłowski. – There is, of course, the problem of some political uncertainty as well, but from the economic point of view, we will indirectly lose. Because if there is a trade war between Europe and the United States, it will also hit the Polish economy. For us, a dramatic problem is the ongoing recession in Germany, the economist added.
The US-China trade war may be just the beginning
Just before the US presidential elections, analysts from Credit Agricole emphasized that Donald Trump's victory would mean tightening the screws related to tariffs against China. One of Trump's key election promises was the introduction of 60 percent. tariffs on all Chinese goods combined with maintaining the already existing increased rates on some goods, such as 100 percent. duty on electric cars. Additionally, “Trump's election agenda also assumes blocking Chinese investments in real estate and industry in the US.” Plus accelerated expansion of the current list of entities subject to sanctions. “If increased customs duties come into force, a significant reduction in the GDP growth rate in China should be expected. According to our estimates, this negative impact may reach 0.4 percentage points in 2025 and 0.8-1.0 percentage points .percent in 2026” – CA experts calculated.
– If the US-China trade war started, I suspect it would not end there. There would perhaps be European-American or European-Chinese wars. This could mean the beginning of escalation – says prof. Orłowski.
What about the Polish zloty after the US elections? – For us, the EUR/PLN ratio is key, so the American elections will not change much here. The dollar will probably strengthen slightly against the euro, the economist adds.
Everything indicates that in the USA we will be dealing with the so-called Republican wave, i.e. Trump's victory and the takeover of both Houses of Congress by the Republican Party. In such a scenario, analysts from Credit Agricole predicted that in economic matters we can expect an expansionary fiscal policy through tax cuts, aggressive customs policy and a reduction in the inflow of migrants. “In addition, we would experience a strengthening of the dollar and an increase in the yield of American bonds. Such a scenario would also lead to a significant increase in inflation,” we read in the CA analysis.